Recently, fans often ask me: "Since Bitcoin is already at 110,000 USD, is this the last chance to get on board?" As someone who has experienced three rounds of bull and bear markets, I will be straightforward: this is not a yes or no question, but rather a game of weighing risks against returns.
1. The hardcore fundamentals of Bitcoin: Why are institutions hoarding it like crazy?
- Scarcity nuclear bomb: A total supply of 21 million coins, with a halving mechanism every 4 years that makes mining exponentially more difficult. After the halving in 2024, miners' daily output will drop sharply from 900 coins to 450 coins, maximizing scarcity directly.
- Institutional endorsement storm:
- Ark Invest's Cathie Wood has set a target price of 1 million USD, and the ARK fund continues to increase its holdings to 120,000 coins.
- JPMorgan's research report sets a short-term target of 120,000 USD and a year-end sprint price of 250,000 USD.
- Arizona has established a digital asset reserve fund, and New Hampshire is purchasing coins with 5% of its fiscal funds.
- Application scenarios are exploding:
- El Salvador has made BTC legal tender, with an annual transaction volume exceeding three times its GDP.
- Grayscale's GBTC holdings exceed 630,000 coins, with strong institutional demand continuing.
2. Historical cycles tell you: Is this really the peak?
- The iron law of bull and bear markets: Bitcoin has a major cycle every 4 years, and after the halving in 2024, it has confirmed entry into the mid-stage of a bull market (referencing the trends of 2016/2020).
- Current position:
- From the low point of 15,500 USD in 2022, the current increase is 610%, far below the bull market peaks of 20 times in 2017 and 17 times in 2021.
- The 200-week moving average (currently 92,000 USD) has not been broken, and the long-term upward trend remains intact.
- Future potential:
- Institutional consensus price: Wall Street predicts the peak of this bull market to be in the range of 250,000 to 350,000 USD.
- Technical analysis: After breaking the historical high of 118,000 USD, the first target is 150,000 USD, with an extreme target of 300,000 USD.
3. Three major fatal risks you must be wary of.
1. Volatility nuclear bomb:
- In 2024, the maximum daily volatility may reach 18%, causing contract players to lose 2 billion USD overnight.
- Advice: Spot players can ignore corrections within 30%, and contract leverage should not exceed 5 times.
2. Regulatory black swan:
- The probability of the US SEC redefining BTC as a security is as high as 40% (Bloomberg data).
- Historical lessons: The 94 ban in 2017 caused BTC to plummet by 50%, and the Binance investigation in 2023 led to a 30% decline.
3. Risk of confidence collapse:
- If the price drops below the 200-week moving average (92,000 USD), it may trigger panic selling.
- Miner surrender warning: When mining difficulty decreases for three consecutive weeks, be wary of an early arrival of a bear market.
Ultimate advice: How should different amounts of capital operate?
1. Retail investors with less than 50,000 USD.
- Strategy: Dollar-cost averaging + increasing positions on dips.
- Execution: Invest 10% of monthly salary regularly, double the purchase when the price drops below 100,000 USD, aiming to hold 0.1 BTC.
2. Intermediate players with 50,000 to 500,000 USD.
- Strategy: 70% in spot + 30% in contracts.
- Execution:
- Spot: Fully invest when it drops below 95,000 USD, take profits at 150,000 USD for 50%, and sell everything at 250,000 USD.
- Contracts: Open 5x short positions near the historical high of 118,000 USD, with a stop loss set at 122,000 USD.
3. Large holders with more than 500,000 USD.
- Strategy: Hedging + cross-market arbitrage.
- Execution:
- Go long on BTC spot while shorting altcoin index futures.
- Use the price difference between Coinbase and Binance for risk-free arbitrage.
Final advice
There is nothing new in the crypto world, but there are always people paying the 'IQ tax'. If you:
✅ Can withstand a 50% floating loss in volatility.
✅ Have a holding period of at least 2 years.
✅ Invest idle money that won't affect your life.
Then it's not too late to enter now. But if you want to double your investment in three months, I advise you to leave early—I've seen too many people like this, and they all ended up as fuel for the exchanges.
For those who can't grasp the market, you can follow@柒捌说币 , keep the rhythm, and welcome the bull market together!!!
$BTC $ETH
