Fundamental Dynamics:
ETF Approval Progress Delayed: The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has decided to postpone its final ruling on the spot ETF applications submitted by Bitwise (Dogecoin), Grayscale (Hedera), and VanEck (Avalanche).
Exchange Dynamics: Coinbase has included the Sonic ($S) project in its list of potential tokens for future listings.
Regulatory Policy Shift: The SEC has officially withdrawn several key proposals, including its earlier extended version (custody rules) and (Rule 3b-16). This move is seen as a significant adjustment in regulatory strategy, shifting from the 'strong regulation, heavy enforcement' model of Gary Gensler's tenure to a more collaborative and development-focused 'governance-type regulation' framework. This transformation is expected to effectively reduce compliance barriers for traditional financial institutions entering the cryptocurrency market in the medium term, while providing clearer compliance pathways for DeFi projects, thus boosting market confidence and attracting incremental funds.
Technical Analysis:
Bitcoin (BTC):
Macroeconomic Context: The Federal Reserve's June meeting maintained interest rates, and the market's expectation for the first rate cut has been postponed to the end of the third quarter or the beginning of the fourth quarter, putting short-term pressure on liquidity in the cryptocurrency market. Heightened geopolitical tensions have exacerbated market panic, with safe-haven funds flowing into traditional assets like gold and oil. Bitcoin is still classified as a high-risk asset and faces short-term pressure. However, if the situation continues to deteriorate and pushes oil prices higher, global inflation expectations may reignite, potentially reinforcing the logic of 'anti-dollar, anti-inflation assets' in the medium term, which could be beneficial for Bitcoin.
Price Trends: The daily chart shows a significant bearish candlestick formed yesterday, effectively breaking below key moving average support. This morning, the market further declined with increased volume, briefly breaking through the low support level (around 103) for the past month. The K-line combination over the past three days shows a retreat after a high-level oscillation, accompanied by increased trading volume, indicating a depletion of bullish momentum and a significant cooling of market risk appetite, leading to active selling pressure. Currently, the price is in a short-term pressure release phase, but the mid-term technical structure has not been severely damaged. If an effective support platform can be established near the 95 area, combined with potential macro positive catalysts (such as a recovery in net inflows of spot ETF funds and a shift in Federal Reserve policy towards easing), the price may challenge previous highs again.
Intraday Strategy Reference: Core support below is focused on the 102-103 area; key resistance above is noted at the 105-106 area.
Ethereum (ETH):
Short-term (within 3 days): If the 2480 support holds successfully, consider gradual positioning.
Medium-term (2 weeks): An effective breakthrough and stabilization at the 2700 mark accompanied by increased volume could target 3050.
Long-term (Q3): If there is an effective breakthrough of the critical resistance at 3050, along with expectations of spot ETF approvals and a shift in the macro environment towards easing, Ethereum is expected to enter an accelerated bull market phase, targeting the 34-35 area.
Price Trends: The daily level previously showed a volume increase in a failed attempt to stabilize at the 2800 mark, indicating that major funds were unsuccessful in testing the waters, and the main upward trend has yet to start. This round of correction is accompanied by increased trading volume, indicating that some funds have chosen to actively take profits or reduce positions. If the price can stabilize within the 2380-2480 range with reduced volume, it may be seen as a buying opportunity; conversely, if it breaks this range with increased volume, one should be cautious of a trend reversal risk. The current price is at the lower edge of the consolidation range for nearly a month (around 2480), showing a slight rebound, indicating that there is technical support at this position, and the strength of the rebound should be observed.
Strategy Outlook:
Intraday Strategy Reference: Core support below is focused on the 2480-2450 area; key resistance above is noted at the 2560-2580 area.
Altcoins:
Market Performance: Against the backdrop of heightened geopolitical risks, the altcoin sector has experienced a systemic correction. As a typical high-beta (high volatility) asset, its overall decline far exceeds that of mainstream coins, highlighting a sharp rise in market risk aversion. Over the past 24 hours, there has been a broad-based decline in volume, indicating that risk capital is accelerating its exit from this area, turning towards mainstream coins or staying on the sidelines. Recently active sectors (such as MEME coins, L2 expansion concepts, AI concepts) are generally experiencing significant declines from highs.
Risk Warning: In the short term (about one week), if Bitcoin effectively breaks below the 103 support or Ethereum falls below the 2480 support, the decline of altcoins may intensify. In the absence of incremental funds (such as a large net inflow of stablecoins) and if market panic has not effectively eased, it is advisable to remain highly vigilant, prioritizing cash positions or extremely low positions.
Potential Opportunities: Looking ahead to mid to late June, as events such as U.S. Treasury maturities unfold, if the market can demonstrate strong capital attraction and Ethereum stabilizes, sector rotation may be led by top Layer 1 or Layer 2 projects. Especially for quality projects that receive significant support from exchanges, there may be significant short-term explosive potential.
Important Statement:
The digital asset market is highly volatile, and investment risks are extremely high. The above content is only personal market observations and analysis sharing, and does not constitute any form of investment advice or operational guidance. Investors must make independent and prudent decisions based on their own risk tolerance.
The market has risks, and entering should be done with caution.