$BTC Lao Te's personal opinion:

1. I believe the price of Bitcoin is still far from its peak. If we consider the period around interest rate cuts, I would conservatively guess it might reach 140,000;

2. Since institutional investors have entered the market on a large scale, the price movements of Bitcoin have changed. There have been small pullbacks followed by significant surges. Currently, we are in a long-term bull trend. However, upon observation, we can see that as the price of Bitcoin rises, the magnitude of the surges after each pullback is gradually weakening. The reason for this is simply that the price has become more expensive, and more capital is needed for the surges, leading to smaller increments;

3. When the pullback exceeds 30%, I believe that will signal the end of the overall Bitcoin bull market;

4. As for altcoins, over 90% will go to zero because 99.99% of the altcoins in the crypto space are scams by market manipulators. As the market matures and players become more sophisticated, these scams will no longer be able to deceive anyone, leading to their demise. The remaining ones will either be genuinely meaningful new altcoins or older ones that have become meaningful. For example: UNI could be significant if it opens its dividend switch; otherwise, it is just a worthless token;

5. However, before altcoins go to zero, it won't prevent a collective surge when liquidity is genuinely abundant. While it’s hard to imagine a scenario where all coins soar together, it might be similar to the period from October 2023 to March 2024. #美国加征关税 #加密市场回调