On the same day that Musk publicly 'apologized' to Trump, Dogecoin (DOGE) prices quietly rose nearly 3%, briefly breaking through the $0.199 level. However, behind this price increase, there was not the familiar 'Dogecoin FOMO-like frenzy'—instead, it was filled with caution, observation, and repression. What exactly happened?


I. Musk's voice, price reaction, retail absence


Dogecoin has started from the support level of $0.1727, and as of the time of writing, it has risen by 2.97%. However, what is most worthy of attention is not the price change, but rather the composition of market participants has changed:


  • Derivatives open interest has risen by 10.84% to $2.2 billion;


  • Daily trading volume has surged by 37.73% to $5.21 billion;


  • However, the retail heatmap at the spot level has hardly turned red, meaning retail has not moved.



In past Dogecoin markets, a single tweet or meme from Musk could ignite Weibo, Twitter, or even the Robinhood app. But now, this kind of phenomenon of collective 'herd-like following' has not appeared.


Mlion.ai's on-chain address analysis function provides some explanations: This round of price movement is concentrated in large wallets and high-frequency trading accounts, a typical behavior logic dominated by 'institutional derivatives,' not traditional retail driving the pace.



II. The price structure seems optimistic, but there are hidden worries


From a technical perspective, DOGE is approaching the upper resistance level of the descending channel at $0.2496, while the Bollinger Bands are highly converged—this usually signals that a major market movement is about to break out:


  • MACD signals are smoothing out and are expected to form a golden cross in the coming days;


  • Bollinger Bands have compressed to the lowest range in nearly two months, building up for a potential change;


  • Although trading volume has increased, 'concentrated sources' + 'cold sentiment' indicate that the funding structure is not balanced.



For users familiar with Mlion.ai's AI strategy diagram function, this is a typical 'bullish accumulation + market sentiment lag' combination, which easily forms a 'false breakout' or 'sharp drop after a surge.'


More critically, Binance data shows that currently, the long-short account ratio for DOGE is more than 60% skewed towards long positions, with short-term traders showing a high degree of consensus in sentiment. Once the price pulls back in the pressure zone, there will be a risk of large-scale long liquidations.



III. Musk's topic popularity ≠ market's real momentum


This time, the public sentiment around 'Musk apologizing to Trump' did indeed stir heated discussions on social media. However, surprisingly, it did not create a substantial buying wave in the DOGE community.


Why? Because retail investors, after experiencing too many rounds of 'Musk effect' foreplay, have begun to desensitize to his statements, and the market is gradually shifting from 'following slogans' to 'trading based on trends.'


Mlion.ai's news deep analysis system indicates that despite Dogecoin experiencing several rebounds driven by Musk, since the second half of 2024, the retail-led spot volume has continued to decline, with institutions becoming the main force driving the wave market.


This time is no exception. Even FOMO is too lazy to arise, indicating that this round of rebound is not driven by broad user consensus and lacks 'sustained fuel.'



IV. How long can Dogecoin bulls hold out?


We must acknowledge that Dogecoin still has structural bullish fundamentals:


  • Social media influence ranks high in the crypto circle;


  • Has a relatively active DeFi experimental ecosystem (especially in the Layer 2 direction);


  • Musk remains its 'unofficial spokesperson';



However, without support from retail traffic, the sustainability of the short-term trend largely depends on:


  1. Whether it can break through the key resistance of $0.2496 with volume;


  2. Whether the derivatives market can continue to maintain low liquidations and a stable upward trend in long funding rates;


  3. Whether new on-chain hotspots emerge to stimulate cash demand.



At this time, Mlion.ai's price prediction model and on-chain heat dashboard can become key reference tools to help judge whether the price is inflated and whether it is worth following.



V. Summary: Opportunities are brewing, but risks are equally real


Currently, the DOGE trend shows a dual split state of 'strong expectations and weak reality':


  • Strong expectations: The price is trying to reverse the structure, the Bollinger Bands are about to open, and social topics are returning;


  • Weak reality: Retail is indifferent, volume is not following, and structural upward momentum is weak.



This is precisely the rhythm that speculators love—using hotspots to attract flow and raise prices for unloading; it is also a trap where ordinary investors are most likely to 'chase high and take the bait.'


In this pattern, it is recommended to shift the funding strategy towards light position trading + data-driven + clear stop-loss directions. By combining Mlion.ai's AI daily report, heat analysis, and address behavior tracking modules, one can formulate trading plans more scientifically.


Because this is no longer the era when Musk shouted 'DOGE to the moon' and the whole network took off in 2021, but rather a deep water zone where traders must 'focus on the chain and hit the right rhythm.'


#doge⚡

Disclaimer: This article is for informational reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The volatility of crypto assets is significant; caution is advised when entering the market.