Recently, the cryptocurrency market has been turbulent, with multiple factors intertwining to trigger severe fluctuations. The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) has taken strong regulatory actions, geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have escalated, and subtle changes in the tariff policies of the Trump administration have left investors on edge with every piece of news. In this complex market situation, how are mainstream crypto assets like Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) performing? How should one position in altcoins? Let’s conduct a thorough analysis from both fundamental and technical perspectives.
1. Analysis of the market fundamentals intertwined with long and short positions
The Monetary Authority of Singapore recently issued a significant warning, delivering a 'deportation order' to cryptocurrency trading platforms without local licenses. This move aims to build a barrier for investor protection and prevent a recurrence of incidents similar to the FTX collapse. In the short term, market panic has spread rapidly, increasing investors' concerns about the safety and liquidity of crypto assets, leading to a surge in demand for safe-haven assets; however, from a long-term perspective, this policy will accelerate industry reshuffling, promote the cryptocurrency market towards compliance and regulation, benefiting compliant trading platforms and potentially stimulating the development of compliant sectors like stablecoins and on-chain payments.
At the same time, the situation in the Middle East has suddenly heated up, and geopolitical conflicts have intensified. Against the backdrop of soaring gold prices, a traditional safe-haven asset, cryptocurrencies have attracted some funds seeking diversified hedging options due to their 'digital gold' properties, providing a short-term boost to the market.
On the other side of the ocean, signals of easing trade policies have emerged, with the Trump administration intending to extend the tariff suspension period beyond July 9. This decision may significantly improve global market risk appetite and provide more room for easing in the Federal Reserve's subsequent monetary policy. Once the liquidity gates open, risk assets represented by cryptocurrencies are expected to welcome a chance for valuation recovery.
2. BTC Technical Analysis: Under pressure, waiting for directional breakout
From the daily level observation, Bitcoin closed with a solid bearish candle yesterday, with three attempts to break above the $1105 level over the past two days, establishing a strong short-term resistance level; meanwhile, the $1080 level has shown strong support. Despite the bearish close, the overall upward trend has not been broken, as the MA7 moving average continues to maintain an upward divergence, and the K-line has effectively corrected the previous overbought state of technical indicators during the consolidation phase.
Switching to the 4-hour level, although market trading volume has significantly increased, prices have failed to refresh their highs, indicating strong selling pressure faced by bulls when attempting to reach new highs. The current K-line has formed a pattern of three consecutive small bearish candles, indicating a technical pullback phase. However, the $1080 support level has once again played its role, showing initial signs of price stabilization. In intraday trading, it is advised to focus on the support range of $1075 - $1065 below, while the resistance level above is set at $1095 - $1105.
3. ETH Technical Analysis: Adjusting and gathering strength, expected to challenge the three-thousand mark
Ethereum's daily chart showed a pullback after hitting a high yesterday, providing an opportunity to repair technical indicators after the significant rise over the past two days. From a daily chart perspective, Ethereum still maintains a standard oscillating upward wedge structure, with limited downward momentum. On the weekly level, the significant rise in early May created a notable technical gap, and after four weeks of box consolidation, the divergence between the K-line and the MA7 moving average has been effectively corrected. This week, Ethereum closed strongly with a solid bullish candlestick, and if the current K-line pattern can be maintained, the probability of breaking through the $3000 level will significantly increase.
In the smaller timeframes, Ethereum's price rebounded after plunging to around $2740 early this morning, which has become the key defensive line for the day. The 4-hour chart shows that after a volume increase during the US trading session, it is currently in a technical adjustment phase. If the $2740 support is broken, the $2700 round number will become a crucial defense line. In intraday operations, it is advised to focus on the support range of $2740 - $2710 below, with resistance levels looking towards $2800 - $2830 above.
4. Altcoin investment strategy: Strictly control risks, with a focus on swing trading
Compared to Bitcoin and Ethereum, altcoins have shown greater volatility in this round of adjustments, with most altcoins experiencing a pullback of around 10%. Particularly, meme coins and small-cap altcoins that had previously seen significant gains have been hit hard by selling pressure under the impact of regulatory policies in Singapore.
Investors are reminded that the altcoin market has strong interconnectivity, exhibiting the characteristics of 'prosper together, suffer together.' When operating, it is crucial to strictly execute swing trading strategies, decisively exiting once the expected profit target is reached or stop-loss levels are hit, and patiently waiting for the next market opportunity. Taking the recently positioned altcoin 'Heyue' as an example, earlier profits were taken based on strategy, and currently only a small position is retained to capitalize on breakthrough opportunities, while strictly controlling risk within 10% to ensure the safety of the investment portfolio.
The cryptocurrency market has always been full of uncertainties, with policy changes, geopolitical factors, and macroeconomic elements having profound effects on market trends. While seizing opportunities, investors must remember that 'the crypto market has risks, and investment requires caution,' ensuring proper risk management and making rational decisions. What are your views on the future market trend? Feel free to share and discuss in the comments!