Trump raises the tariff stick again: July 9 may become a turning point for the global market. Is the crypto market ready?


The US is once again at the 'negotiating table' of global trade. This time, it is not due to a spontaneous market crisis, but a tariff storm ignited by Trump.


In a public speech at the Kennedy Center, former President Trump stated emphatically: 'We will send out letters in the coming weeks.' This 'letter' will outline the US's unilateral tariff plans against major trading partners, coupled with his familiar tough attitude - 'Accept or abandon'. As the critical tariff suspension period of July 9 approaches, these words act like a warning siren ringing over the global economy.


A letter that could shake global trade uncertainty


July 9 is a key date. On this day, the suspension of the highest tariffs imposed by the US on Chinese goods will expire. If there is no extension, some existing tariff measures may be reinstated. Treasury Secretary Scott Basset stated that the suspension may be extended, but 'only for countries that negotiate in good faith'. The implication is that if negotiations do not go well, the US will not hesitate to restore or even escalate trade barriers.


What does this mean? It means the market is entering a suspenseful new cycle: policy signals are chaotic, sentiment is extremely sensitive, and any wording may trigger sharp fluctuations in global asset prices.


The China-US trade framework has initially eased, but risks remain.


Although China and the US have reached a six-month 'temporary easing' agreement on rare earth minerals and magnet export controls, Trump has also shown some goodwill regarding Chinese student visas, the core game of tariffs and technology remains unshaken.


Trump claims that 'the China-US agreement is complete', awaiting formal approval from Chinese President Xi Jinping. But behind this statement lies a logic of pressure: the US will retain the leverage of increasing tariffs on the grounds that 'the agreement has not taken effect'.



The total tariff on Chinese goods is estimated to be 55%. This figure is not new but is a summary of all existing policies. Even so, this high tax burden structure still causes extreme concern for businesses and the market. Although the US International Trade Court previously ruled that some implementation methods were 'illegal', the latest appellate court ruling overturned this decision, allowing Trump's policy to continue.


This indicates that the institutional checks and balances within the US are becoming blurred, and unilateralism may regain dominance in the coming months. For exporting countries, this is pressure; for the international capital market, this is a risk amplifier.


Mlion.ai perspective: Alpha opportunities in a macro shift


Against the backdrop of uncertain global policy directions, the crypto market is facing a dilemma: on one hand, risk-averse sentiment may lead some funds to flow into 'digital gold' like Bitcoin and Ethereum; on the other hand, a strong dollar and rising global risk premiums may also lead to short-term selling pressure.


If you are a conservative trader, now is the time to open Mlion.ai's news alerts for in-depth analysis and macro prediction models. Through the AI sentiment analysis and on-chain data tracking integrated on the Mlion.ai platform, you can quickly grasp the impact of policy changes on USDT stablecoin flows, BTC funding rates, and major address movements, thereby avoiding the predicament of being passively hit by news.


In addition, the Mlion.ai data dashboard can help users identify the 'external shock resilience points' in the crypto market. For example, when there is a sharp change in USDT premiums, you can quickly determine whether it is a regional liquidity issue or the global dollar repricing effect.


Next step: a new chapter or a gap?


Currently, everyone's attention is focused on the letter that Trump is about to 'send out'. Will these letters open a new chapter of 'controlled competition' in global trade? Or will they ignite an unpredictable conflict? No one can say for sure.


But one thing is clear: during the next two weeks, policy news, market sentiment, and global capital flows will enter a highly interconnected state. For crypto investors, this is not only the calm before the storm but also a key window for early layout of cognitive differences.


If you are still staring at candlestick charts trying to guess market tops and bottoms, you might as well use Mlion.ai's AI macro engine and cryptocurrency trend prediction model to refocus on the 'political economic battlefield' of the real world. Because the future volatility may not necessarily come from on-chain events, but possibly from a letter from Trump.



Disclaimer: The content of this article is for informational sharing only and does not constitute any investment advice. The crypto asset market is highly volatile, and investment should be approached with caution.