Due to the lower-than-expected CPI data boosting market expectations for rate cuts, the dollar index plummeted during the trading session, ultimately closing lower. The three major U.S. stock indices opened high but closed lower, with Bitcoin down 1.38% and Ethereum down 1.09%. The market is starting to cool off!
Crypto market news:
1. Trump stated that the Federal Reserve should lower interest rates by 1%.
2. U.S. May CPI growth was lower than expected, boosting sentiment in the crypto market.
3. The market expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates by a total of 77 basis points over the next year.
4. Bitcoin miner IREN plans to issue convertible bonds to raise $450 million.
5. Billionaire Paul Tudor Jones claims that buying Bitcoin is the best way to combat inflation.
6. The CEO of Bank of America revealed a willingness to launch a stablecoin project with partners.
Macroeconomic Highlights:
1. Tariffs —
① The EU hopes to extend the timeline for trade negotiations until after the temporary deadline set by Trump.
② Besant: As long as there is 'sincerity' in the negotiations, the Trump administration is willing to extend the current 90-day tariff suspension period beyond July 9.
③ Trump will hold several bilateral talks during the G7 summit.
④ Total customs tax revenue in the U.S. reached a record $23 billion in May, nearly quadrupling year-on-year.
⑤ Lutnik: One deal after another will be reached.
2. After Trump and Musk's mutual slander led to a deterioration in their relationship, there has finally been new progress.
Musk regrets his previous posts about Trump. Trump: can reconcile with Musk, but it is not a top priority. It is reported that both sides had private communications before Musk expressed regret.
3. Trump stated that he intends to send letters to trade partners within the next one to two weeks to determine unilateral tariff rates before the July 9 deadline for reinstating higher tariffs on dozens of economies.
Howard Marks, co-founder of Oak Tree Capital Management, stated that investors should expect ongoing uncertainty during Trump's presidency, and the relatively high valuations in global markets require a cautious approach from investors.
4. 70-year-old Jones said that when Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's term ends next year, Trump is likely to appoint a 'super dove' as the Fed chairman to align with his growth agenda.
Trump's focus on growth and loyalty has made Besant a prominent candidate. Jones believes that U.S. Treasury Secretary Besant is likely to be a candidate for Fed chair.
He predicts that the growing deficit will ultimately lead to a decline in the stock market. Before that, the best investment portfolio to combat inflation is a combination of stocks, gold, and volatility-adjusted Bitcoin.
Today's Focus:
14:00, UK April three-month GDP month-on-month, manufacturing output month-on-month, adjusted goods trade balance, industrial output month-on-month;
20:30, U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending June 7, U.S. May PPI;
Today's jobless claims and PPI data report is also a noteworthy news item. The recent upward trend continues, and yesterday, Yumi mentioned that the bulls have made several attempts to break above resistance, yet have not achieved significant results. After the whales began reducing their positions in the early morning, the market dropped again. Despite the bullish sentiment, the lack of volume is a significant issue. If the upward movement continues to face obstacles, a decline is inevitable.
Currently, bullish sentiment has gradually cooled down, and the market indicators show a bearish trend. If favorable news emerges in the evening, there might be a brief rebound. Currently, 105000 is strong support, while the pressure level has risen to 109800. It's difficult to break through the current historical high of 110000 unless something significant happens. Of course, if a breakthrough occurs, the upward trend will surely soar, and the upper range of 112000-115000 will become clear sailing.
The overall upward trend is not a problem, but if it continues to rise without effective breakthroughs, the inevitable outcome will be market corrections and ongoing sideways fluctuations. In the short term, the downward trend is evident, and bearish sentiment in the market continues to accumulate. It is advisable to take a short position first, waiting for the bulls to warm up before continuing to push upward.
The deadline for the tariff suspension at the beginning of July is approaching. In areas where negotiations have not yet been concluded, Trump will certainly take further actions. As for the outcome of future negotiations, we can only watch the big players perform. However, we must remain alert, respecting the market while also being wary of all potential risks and impacts. In summary, it's always wise to stay cautious.
Dreams often make us act in the opposite way, and the market is the same. After the bulls continuously refreshed everyone's bullish sentiment in the past few days, the market suddenly made a sharp turnaround, catching you off guard. Therefore, even if the situation is favorable in our daily operations, we must remain vigilant. We cannot let our guard down.
