#看懂K线

Candlestick charts are not a forecasting tool, but a tool that reflects market sentiment and price structure.

🔍 Why do you think candlesticks are inaccurate?

1. Looking at candlestick patterns in isolation, ignoring the context

Focusing only on patterns like 'engulfing, doji, hammer' while ignoring trend direction, support and resistance levels, trading volume, and other background information is a common mistake.

The meaning of candlestick patterns is completely different at the end of a trend compared to the beginning of a trend.

2. Not pairing with time frames and structures

The same candlestick pattern has completely different meanings on a 1-minute chart versus a daily chart.

Many people mix the logic of 'short-term candlestick analysis and long-term fundamentals,' leading to misjudgments.

3. Over-reliance on a single technical analysis tool

Candlesticks are just one of many technical tools. You also need to combine:

Moving Averages (MA)

Trading Volume (Volume)

Support/Resistance zones

Trendlines or Channels

Momentum indicators like MACD/RSI

4. Expecting candlesticks to 'predict the future' rather than provide a probabilistic advantage

Candlesticks do not guarantee outcomes; they provide probabilistic **'trading opportunities.'**

The market is not about prediction, but about response.

As long as a strategy has a win rate >50% and proper risk management, it can be profitable in the long run.

🧠 The correct way to view candlesticks:

Misconception Correct Understanding

Candlesticks can tell me the future price direction Candlesticks show past price behavior, which helps estimate market sentiment and probabilities

I can buy/sell just by looking at candlestick patterns Candlesticks should be used in conjunction with trends, positions, volume, and risk management

Technical analysis is just looking at charts and guessing direction Technical analysis is a tool for managing risk and probabilities

🛠️ Practical advice for you (even if you think candlesticks are 'inaccurate')

1. Establish a simple strategy combination:

Trend direction: Use MA20 and MA50 to determine bullish or bearish

Key positions: Identify previous highs and lows or support/resistance levels

Candlestick signals: Wait for clear reversal candlestick patterns (engulfing, pin bar, etc.) to appear at the above positions

Volume confirmation: If there is a noticeable increase in volume at the reversal position, the credibility is higher

2. Record and backtest:

Record the results of each judgment made using candlesticks and create your own 'win rate statistics table'

3. Combine risk control and position management:

Even if the strategy's win rate is only 50%, as long as the risk-reward ratio is reasonable (e.g., 1:2), it can still be profitable in the long run.

📖 In summary:

> 'Candlesticks are not a crystal ball, but the language of market sentiment. You need to learn to interpret them, not to be superstitious.'