ENA is testing $ENA
Downward channel resistance, where 94% of its holders have shares either below the trading level or at breakeven.
Accumulation among individual and institutional investors is growing, while derivatives activity points to volatility driven by breakout.
The stock #Ethena [$ENA ] has been trading within a steep downward channel since late 2024, suppressing every upward attempt to recover over the months.
The price is now testing the upper boundary of this structure near $0.36, which is slightly above the 100-day simple moving average (SMA), located at $0.3479 at the time of publication.
Historically, this trendline has rejected bullish moves, but the current consolidation around resistance indicates potential breakout momentum.
Therefore, a daily close above $0.37 may pave the way towards $0.45 and possibly higher.
However, confirmation will depend on expanding trading volume and sustainability after $0.41, as there are still significant resistance clusters.
The holders of $ENA who are struggling form a barrier.
Despite recent stabilization, the price of ENA remains under significant pressure from struggling holders. Only 5.53% of portfolios made a profit, while 25.39% lost money.
69.08% of token holders are at breakeven, near the price range at the time of publication between $0.34 and $0.41. This creates a thick layer of psychological resistance, as many holders may sell aggressively to achieve breakeven or limit losses.
As a result, even if the price breaks the technical support level, it must surpass this dense supply range. This distribution risk may weaken any rise unless demand accelerates significantly in the near term.
Can individual and institutional investors drive ENA stock higher?
Over the past thirty days, whale holdings have decreased by 3.63%, indicating that large entities are reducing their exposure.
At the same time, mid-tier and individual investors are increasing their holdings, rising by 19.15% and 10.44% respectively. This trend indicates growing confidence among smaller investors.
However, the lack of strong whale participation may weaken the breakout's strength unless new large buyers emerge. Therefore, while the public seems optimistic, true momentum often requires strong support.
It remains to be seen whether retail enthusiasm alone can overcome resistance and effect a convincing breakout of the price channel.
Is there quiet accumulation?
At the time of writing, ENA recorded immediate outflows of $10.53 million, compared to only $7.83 million in inflows. This continues a broader trend of more tokens exiting exchanges than entering them.
Historically, steady outflows indicate growing investor confidence and a decrease in immediate selling pressure.
Thus, this shift supports bullish expectations, especially if it continues. However, these moves must align with price action for a meaningful breakout.
If accumulation continues alongside dwindling supply, this could eventually lead to a repricing of the asset, provided broader market conditions do not dissuade investors from taking risks.
Sudden spike in volatility
Open interest in ENA has increased by 10.51% to reach $484.47 million, indicating growing activity in the derivatives markets. This rise reflects renewed speculative interest and suggests that traders are preparing for a significant move.
If the price surpasses the resistance level, existing short positions may come under pressure, fueling a sharp rise. However, rising open interest also increases the risk of heightened volatility in both directions.
So, while this metric supports the idea of an upcoming breakout, it also emphasizes the need for cautious optimism until confirmation comes through price and volume alignment.
ENA's price is at a critical stage. If the bulls overcome channel resistance and curb heavy selling pressure near breakeven areas, the token may target $0.45 and above.
However, without whale support, and considering the large number of struggling holders, success depends on continued inflows, ongoing accumulation, and confirmation of a breakout above $0.41.
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