With the world holding its breath, the U.S. and China have finally reached a 'trade agreement' in London—but it has no clear terms, no timetable, and no substantive commitments. This vague and pale document instead leaves investors at a loss, and the market reaction is surprisingly 'expressionless.'


U.S. Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick stated that the agreement has been submitted to the White House awaiting President Trump's approval. However, apart from the declaration of 'we will report back to the President,' traders and analysts are met not with market cheers but with a collective retreat. U.S. stocks slightly corrected, Bitcoin and Ethereum did not break through, the dollar index showed no improvement, and even the renminbi exchange rate had no fluctuations—this is no longer a delayed reaction but a cold response to the 'hollow text.'



Market's quadruple silence: stocks, currencies, bonds, and chains collectively silent


The way this 'most watched trade negotiation in the world' ended is shocking, but what is more concerning is the market's collective silence:


  • In the stock market: S&P 500 futures slightly fell 0.2%, Nasdaq futures retreated 0.1%, and the Dow Jones fell slightly, down 66 points. Investors have clearly hit the 'pause button,' waiting for more signals.


  • Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin fluctuates around $109,000, Ethereum hovers below $2800, and on-chain data indicates a sharp decline in trading activity among short-term holders, with the market unwilling to add positions in an unclear context.


  • Forex market: The dollar fell slightly against the euro by 0.1% and rose against the yen by 0.1%, while the onshore renminbi price remained at 7.1849, almost stationary. The dollar index of the six major currencies hovers around 98.993.


  • Precious metals: Spot gold slightly rose to $3336, indicating that risk aversion sentiment is gradually warming up, but not intensely.



It is worth noting that Bitcoin's open interest has also dropped by over $1 billion in the past 48 hours, on-chain active addresses have decreased, and FOMO sentiment has clearly cooled. This indicates that investors choose to 'retreat' when lacking a sense of direction rather than 'continue the gamble.'



The real storm: not an agreement, but hidden variables


What traders are really worried about is not how powerless this agreement is, but that it fails to address any short-term or medium-term risk exposures:


  1. Inflation data is approaching: The U.S. CPI data for May will be released this week, with the median forecast for overall +0.2%, core +0.3%. If inflation exceeds expectations, it will be more difficult for the Federal Reserve to maintain a stance of 'pausing interest rate hikes.'


  2. Debt and deficit risks are fermenting: Today's $39 billion 10-year U.S. Treasury auction is particularly critical. If overseas buying is insufficient, yields may rise rapidly, triggering a double whammy for stocks and bonds.


  3. Long-term policy uncertainty intensifies: Although the market expects a 60% probability of a rate cut in September, as long as trade and fiscal policies remain unclear, the market can never fully 'go all-in.'


And for the crypto market, this ambiguity is particularly deadly—on-chain sentiment indicators show that the proportion of Bitcoin and Ethereum's spot inflow into exchanges is rising, meaning some users are choosing to take profits or stop-loss actions.



More critically: does this 'agreement' really exist?


From market feedback, many even begin to doubt whether this negotiation can truly be called an 'agreement.' Media outlets like Reuters, Bloomberg, and FT have pointed out:


  • The agreement has no documents;


  • No specific tariff descriptions;


  • No enforcement mechanism;


  • Not even a joint press conference.



Various crypto finance KOLs' viewpoints collected by the Mlion.ai platform also express similar opinions: 'This is not an agreement; it is an 'avoidance-style public relations' for investors.' Especially in the current context of rapid changes in global policy games, such vague statements may instead sow greater uncertainty.



What should investors do next?


In such a context, whether in traditional financial markets or crypto markets, the most important thing is calmness and data-driven analytical ability. This is where Mlion.ai can provide assistance:


  • Connect on-chain and off-chain data, quickly identify market anomalies;


  • Provide cryptocurrency market trends, futures OI, on-chain liquidity, and chip concentration analysis;


  • Combine global news contexts, use AI language models to generate forward-looking interpretations, assist in investment judgments;


  • Support tracking of sentiment fluctuations to help identify potential turning signals.



At the current stage, blind trading and betting on direction are to be avoided. It is recommended to use Mlion.ai's news deep analysis and AI strategy visualization features to identify trends truly worth betting on, rather than responding to the emotional fluctuations caused by 'hollow news.'



Conclusion


The reason why the China-U.S. trade 'agreement' did not bring the expected relief is precisely because it did not address any real issues. This is not an endpoint but an extended 'uncertainty.'


In the context of unresolved inflation and the upcoming results of U.S. Treasury auctions, the market is entering an extremely fragile window. Perhaps the real 'big market' will not be triggered by agreements, but ignited by turning points in data, policy, and confidence.


Are you ready for the next wave of volatility?



The above content is for informational sharing only and does not constitute any investment advice.