What happens when the business empires of tech giants begin to infiltrate the political arena? Musk's name is once again at the center of attention. This time, he is not only looking to change the automotive, aerospace, and communications sectors, but could also disrupt the entire political landscape of the United States.


Recently, the decentralized prediction market Polymarket indicated that the probability of Musk creating a new political party in 2025 has surged from 7% in early June to 17%. The total amount of related bets has surpassed $416 million, and interest in the 'America Party' is continuing to heat up. Amidst the public confrontations between Musk and Trump, this 'party-building' game seems to be evolving from mere online excitement to a tangible possibility.



Why has the market suddenly bet on the 'America Party'? The underlying logic is worth scrutinizing.


If this is just an online vote, perhaps we would find it unremarkable. But the key lies in the accumulation of several signals that make these 'party-building' rumors no longer 'just a joke':


  • #Polymarket Official partnership with platform X: The social platform X, created by Musk, has now incorporated the decentralized prediction market into its core ecosystem, meaning Musk himself has not only built a stage for this party-building vote but has also indirectly provided a traffic entry point for betting transactions.


  • Public opinion is shifting online: In early June, Musk initiated a vote on platform X asking 'Should a new party representing 80% of centrists be established?' which attracted over 5.63 million participants, with more than 80.4% expressing support. Musk retweeted the results and responded, 'The people have spoken, this is destiny.'


  • Open conflict with Trump, intensifying ideological differences: Musk publicly criticized Trump's economic policies and accused him of concealing Epstein documents, prompting a backlash from Trump, who even threatened to revoke federal contract support for Tesla. This highly confrontational political friction provides an emotional basis for 'starting anew'.



Tesla's stock price is experiencing extreme fluctuations, blurring the lines between business and politics.


Every political move made by Musk is quickly reflected in the capital markets:


  • June 5: Tesla's stock price once plummeted by 18%, closing down 14%, with a market value evaporating by over $150 billion.


  • June 6: The stock price briefly rebounded, but market sentiment has yet to stabilize.



Clearly, investors have begun to reassess Musk's multifaceted identity: tech leader, business adventurer, political influencer. This identity misalignment will directly impact the valuation logic and public trust in his assets.



'America Party': Is it really the seed of a third political pole?


Musk's core idea for the 'America Party' is to give a voice to the 'silent majority'—the centrists in America—breaking the long-standing binding of voter will by the two-party system. This vision theoretically addresses the pain points.


  • Polarization in America is intensifying, and the public desires new channels for political expression.


  • Musk possesses brand appeal and influence in the tech community, having the first-mover advantage to mobilize digital supporters.


  • X combined with on-chain tools provides a digital organizational foundation of 'party + community + fund mobilization'.



However, the reality is not so simple:


  • Building a party requires a large and compliant organizational structure, not just a single vote or high popularity to materialize.


  • Musk's distinctive personality and constant controversies easily escalate tensions in the political arena.


  • Without a clear political agenda and policy direction, it can easily be interpreted as 'entertainment politics'.


However, regardless of the outcome, the transition of the America Party from 'idea' to 'hot topic' itself holds some social significance.



A new turning point in the integration of Web3 and politics: decentralized prediction markets begin to dominate the topic.


It is worth noting that Polymarket's role is gradually shifting from a tool for the crypto market to a barometer of public opinion on social events. This betting frenzy on Musk's political party is not just about one person's ambition, but rather a typical case of how the market prices 'potential political trends' through on-chain trading.


If you wish to continue tracking the evolution of similar events, you might want to try Mlion.ai's 'Real-time Deep Analysis' and 'AI Sentiment Radar' modules—these not only aggregate on-chain capital movements and changes in social heat in real time but can also assess the market price impact range of an event through AI models.


Whether it's Musk's party-building, Trump's policies, or the regulatory changes surrounding stablecoins, Mlion.ai can help you unravel complex information and form a genuinely insightful 'early prediction model'.



In conclusion: The possibility of Musk building a party has never felt so real.


This is not an ordinary vote, nor is it the impromptu idea of a billionaire. In today's politically polarized landscape, the prototype of a tech-oriented, market-oriented centrist party may just be breaking ground from on-chain predictions.


Of course, there is still a long way to go before the actual 'party-building' can happen; institutions, public opinion, funding, policies, and votes—each step presents a challenge. But if the 'America Party' does emerge in 2025, we should not be surprised.


Because the signals have already been given.



Disclaimer: The above content is for information sharing only and does not constitute any investment advice or political position judgment. The market is highly volatile; please maintain independent judgment and risk awareness.