While the market's focus is on the volatility of Bitcoin and mainstream coins, a fat penguin named PENGU quietly staged its own 'counterattack.' On June 10, this memecoin surged by 11.65% in just 24 hours, successfully recovering the critical support range of $0.0097-$0.01 that it had lost for several days, and directly approaching the $0.0110 intersection of bulls and bears.


But is this rise driven by real funds or just another FOMO trap created by speculators? The next step is to directly leap over $0.015 or return to the 'penguin skating rink'?


Technical Analysis: Whether $0.011 can be firmly held is the key to determining fate.


From the market perspective, this rebound has significant technical value:


  • The daily MACD has formed a golden cross, and the histogram has turned positive, indicating increased momentum.


  • Successfully retesting the $0.0097-$0.01 support zone means good short-term buying support.


  • The current price is approaching the strong resistance level of $0.0110. If it can break through firmly and hold, it is very likely to open up medium to short-term upward space towards $0.015.



But if it is suppressed again, the price is likely to retest $0.0099 or even $0.0097, forming a 'false breakout.'


This 'pointed market' is a hotbed for high-frequency quantification and short-term bullish speculation.



Derivatives Market: OI rises + buying pressure dominates, what signal does it release?


On-chain data also reveals strong signals. According to Mlion.ai's on-chain data monitoring:


  • PENGU's open interest (OI) has risen from 1.55 billion at the beginning of June to the current 1.93 billion, an increase of nearly 25%. This is an important signal that funds are flowing back.


  • The bid-ask spread has reached +1.86 million, indicating that traders are generally leaning towards going long, betting on a continued short-term upward movement.


  • The inflow-outflow ratio of spot funds has turned positive, showing that users are increasing the frequency of transferring tokens to exchanges, which may indicate that some investors are preparing to reduce their positions or set stop profits at higher prices.


This set of data seems optimistic, but the underlying logic cannot be ignored: an increase in leverage ratio = potential risk accumulation. This means that if the resistance at $0.0110 fails to break, it could trigger severe liquidation.



The bull-bear game intensifies, what will PENGU do next?


We can evaluate the future market trend from two perspectives:


Bullish Logic:


  • If PENGU can strongly hold above $0.0110 and continue to expand trading volume support, it is expected to challenge the $0.015 resistance zone and enter a new round of rising cycle.


  • OI continues to rise + buying pressure dominates, indicating that market participation enthusiasm is increasing.


  • MACD and RSI have not yet entered the overbought area, there is still room for growth.



Bearish Logic:


  • Once the $0.0110 level fails to break, there is a risk of concentrated fund withdrawal, increasing the probability of a correction to the $0.0097 area.


  • Users transferring tokens back to exchanges may create short-term selling pressure.


  • Increased leverage risk can easily lead to severe fluctuations in the event of sudden negative news.




Use Mlion.ai to capture the next turning point of the 'penguin curve' in advance.


In highly speculative projects like PENGU, it is difficult to determine the authenticity of breakouts relying solely on candlesticks. At this time, AI-driven on-chain analysis becomes particularly crucial.


Through Mlion.ai's on-chain address tracking tool, you can identify whale trading behaviors and the main flow of funds in real-time. Meanwhile, deep analysis of news and sentiment radar can help you judge whether market sentiment is overheating or nearing a turning point. Combined with price prediction models, Mlion.ai can also predict local peaks and risk areas based on changes in open interest and price fluctuations.


If you are trading PENGU or other memecoins, stop blindly chasing highs or lows. Try Mlion.ai's data dashboard and sentiment analysis features now to gain insights into the dynamics of major funds behind the scenes.



Summary:


The recent rise of PENGU has attracted market attention, but the real turning point will depend on the defense and attack situation at the $0.0110 level. A breakthrough is expected to open up new space, while failure may lead to a correction. The short-term market sentiment is bullish, but the leverage ratio is rising, accumulating risks.


Whether speculating or holding coins on the sidelines, remember to let the data speak. Let AI help you see whether each 'fat penguin' leap is soaring high or struggling before a fall.



Disclaimer: The content of this article is for informational sharing only and does not constitute any investment advice. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investments should be made with caution.