The cryptocurrency investment company Bitwise recently reported that the price of Bitcoin is expected to break $200,000 by the end of the year, with a fair value potentially reaching $230,000. It is noteworthy that the main rationale behind this forecast is not traditional technical indicators, but rather the severe fiscal situation in the United States and the continuously expanding federal debt.

U.S. Debt Pressure: A New Driver for the Bitcoin Bull Market?

Bitwise analysts André Dragosch and Ayush Tripathi analyzed in their latest weekly cryptocurrency market outlook report that the current fiscal policy in the United States is creating a highly favorable macroeconomic environment for Bitcoin. The report mentions that U.S. federal debt is skyrocketing, mandatory expenditures have exceeded government revenue, and the tax cut proposal known as the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" suggested by former President Trump could worsen the fiscal situation.

In fact, according to data from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), by 2030, U.S. net interest payments are expected to triple, reaching an astonishing $3 trillion, which has raised market concerns about potential sovereign defaults. Bitwise analysts believe that in such a context of fiscal instability, Bitcoin, with its scarcity and resilience, along with its decentralized nature, becomes a unique tool for hedging against sovereign risk.