Starla Vosburg OAiQ

#美联储FOMC会议 美聯儲重磅信號！鮑威爾“放鴿”引爆市場，9月降息穩了？
💥 政策大轉向
6月FOMC會議剛結束，美聯儲刪除了“保持耐心”的措辭，首次爲降息敞開大門！儘管利率按兵不動，但內部火藥味十足——聖路易斯聯儲主席布拉德直接投反對票，要求立刻降息25個基點。鮑威爾更放話：“隨時準備行動保衛經濟”，被市場解讀爲“9月降息”的明牌信號。
🚨 多空絞殺現場
• 利好：點陣圖顯示8名官員支持年內降息，7人甚至喊出“降兩次”
• 利空：通脹粘性+特朗普關稅威脅，核心PCE仍卡在2.6%高位
• 黑幕：華爾街瘋傳美聯儲已祕密制定“救市劇本”，若美股暴跌10%就緊急降息

$BTC Currently, the bullish momentum remains strong. After the price increase, there has not been a significant pullback. Observing the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin has strongly broken through the upper Bollinger Band. Although there were brief minor pullbacks during this period, their strength and persistence are clearly insufficient and do not indicate a trend reversal signal. Overall, Bitcoin's trajectory still clearly shows a bullish dominance. The multiple pullback attempts by bears have shown fatigue and are insufficient to shake the current solid bullish technical formation. Their effect is more reflected in the brief delay of the rapid upward pace and the necessary correction of indicators, which instead accumulates momentum for subsequent upward movement. Therefore, regarding the subsequent layout strategy, our core idea remains unchanged: continue to develop around the subsequent thoughts from the morning, first look for a correction, patiently wait for the price to show stabilization signals in key support areas, and follow up in batches around the opportunities of the pullback for long positions.

#Metaplanet增持比特币 Metaplanet increased its holdings by 1,112 bitcoins at an average price of $105,435
According to Odaily Planet Daily, Metaplanet announced on June 15, 2025, Eastern Time, that it increased its holdings of 1,112 bitcoins at an average price of $105,435, with a total investment of approximately $117.2 million. Compared to the previous period (announced on June 1, 2025), where it increased its holdings by 1,088 bitcoins at $107,771, the current increase in quantity rose by approximately 2.21%, while the total investment decreased by about 0.09%.
As of June 15, 2025, Metaplanet holds a total of 10,000 bitcoins, with an average price of approximately $94,697, worth $1.058 billion.

#越南加密政策
The draft "Regulation of the Virtual Asset Market" released by the State Bank of Vietnam on June 16, 2025, is causing severe fluctuations in the cryptocurrency market. The core of its policy includes three contradictory games:
1. Fiat Channel Game: The draft allows licensed exchanges to enable direct trading of the Vietnamese Dong (currently, only 5 platforms that account for 17% of the market share qualify), but requires a freeze of 50% of cryptocurrency assets as reserves. As a result, the OTC premium for USDT on Ho Chi Minh City's largest OTC market has reached 8.3%.
2. Miners' Lifeline: The new regulation raises the electricity subsidy for miners from $0.045 per kWh to $0.052, but requires all mining sites to connect to the national power grid for monitoring (currently, 73% of mining sites use off-grid hydropower). BitRiver data shows that Vietnamese miners are accelerating their move to the Lao border, and the overall network's hash rate has dropped by 14% in 24 hours.
3. Regulatory Countdown: There are only 23 hours left in the policy window (as of UTC+8, June 17, 12:00), and anomalies have been detected in the order book for the BTC/USDT trading pair on Binance Vietnam: the sell wall has accumulated 12,437 BTC at $46,500, while the buy orders only support 3,021 BTC at $45,200, causing the market maker spread to widen to 3.7% (normal level is 1.2%-1.8%).

$BTC Bitcoin plays a key role in anti-inflation
The host asked how to allocate assets in this environment, and Jones gave a clear answer:

"In this environment, what kind of investment portfolio is ideal? So far, the best-performing combination might be some mix of stocks, gold, and volatility-adjusted Bitcoin. This may be your best investment portfolio against inflation."
He added that Bitcoin's volatility is about five times that of gold, so the allocation ratio must be discounted. Compared to the 1–2% allocation suggested in 2020, Jones believes that Bitcoin's position has become even more important against the backdrop of increasingly clear policy paths.

Learning from Japan's path: low real interest rates + high inflation
Jones predicts that the U.S. may replicate Japan's experience: suppressing real interest rates, tolerating higher inflation, and shifting the burden to consumers through taxation. He said this strategy will remain effective until inflationary pressures drive the ruling party out of office.

Fed personnel is also a key variable. Jones speculates that if current President Trump wins, he may appoint a "super dove" chairperson to significantly lower interest rates. This echoes Vice Presidential candidate J.D. Vance's criticism of the Federal Reserve's "monetary malpractice" on social media.

29,672,578,657 Bitcoin Plays a Key Role in Fighting Inflation
The host asked how to allocate assets in this environment, and Jones gave a clear answer:

"In this environment, what kind of investment portfolio is ideal? So far, the best-performing combination may be some mix of stocks, gold, and volatility-adjusted Bitcoin. This could be your best portfolio against inflation."
He added that Bitcoin's volatility is about five times that of gold, and the allocation ratio must be discounted. Compared to the 1-2% allocation suggested in 2020, Jones believes Bitcoin's role is even more important now, given the increasingly clear policy path.

Learning from Japan's Path: Low Real Interest Rates + High Inflation
Jones predicts that the U.S. may replicate Japan's experience: keeping real interest rates low, tolerating higher inflation, and then shifting the burden to consumers through taxes. He said this strategy will remain effective until inflationary pressures drive the ruling party out of power.

Fed Personnel Also a Key Variable. Jones speculates that if current President Trump wins, he might appoint a "super dove" chair to significantly lower interest rates. This echoes Vice Presidential candidate J.D. Vance's criticism of the Federal Reserve's "monetary malpractice" on social media.

#卡尔达诺稳定币提案 Attracting Investment Institutions: If the proposal is implemented, it may attract large venture capital institutions such as a16z or Pantera Capital to join the Cardano ecosystem, bringing more funding and resources to the ecosystem and promoting its further growth and development.
Enhancing Competitiveness: Stablecoins are an important asset class in the blockchain field, with Ethereum leading in stablecoin TVL. By enhancing its stablecoin-related layout, Cardano can improve its competitiveness in the DeFi space, better compete with other public chains, and attract more developers and users.
Exploring the Balance Between Privacy and Compliance: Cardano plans to launch privacy stablecoins, relying on technologies such as zero-knowledge proofs to ensure transaction privacy while meeting regulatory requirements through a "selective disclosure and seasonal freeze system," providing new ideas for on-chain financial privacy protection and compliance development. $ADA

$ADA 查爾斯·霍斯金森是一位知名的加密貨幣企業家，卡爾達諾（ADA）的共同創始人和推動力，這項技術在數字貨幣世界中具有顛覆性。這位技術專家是一位備受尊敬的人物，他深刻影響了加密市場，模糊了金融與技術之間的界限。

近年來，霍斯金森的創新理念帶來了一個全新的金融生態系統，這是一個金融與技術獨特融合的體系，正在改變傳統商業模式。

背景和歷史

查爾斯·霍斯金森是一位數學家、企業家和技術專家，因為是以太坊的共同創始人而崛起，這是市場上第二大加密貨幣。對於以太坊所走的方向感到不滿，霍斯金森與團隊分道揚鑣，開始專注於卡爾達諾，現在它已成為世界上最頂尖的加密貨幣之一。

功能和使用案例

在霍斯金森的願景下，卡爾達諾旨在通過提供一個更安全且可擴展的基礎設施，來革命化金融領域，以支持智能合約和去中心化應用（DApps）的開發和執行。作為一個公共區塊鏈平台，它也為全球交易者提供了貨幣攜帶和投資工具。

#卡尔达诺稳定币提案 Charles Hoskinson is a renowned cryptocurrency entrepreneur, co-founder and driving force behind Cardano (ADA), a technology that is disruptive in the world of digital currencies. This tech expert is a respected figure who has profoundly influenced the crypto market, blurring the lines between finance and technology.

In recent years, Hoskinson's innovative ideas have brought forth a whole new financial ecosystem, a unique fusion of finance and technology that is changing traditional business models.

Background and History

Charles Hoskinson is a mathematician, entrepreneur, and tech expert who rose to prominence as a co-founder of Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency in the market. Discontent with the direction Ethereum was taking, Hoskinson parted ways with the team and began focusing on Cardano, which has now become one of the top cryptocurrencies in the world.

Features and Use Cases

Under Hoskinson's vision, Cardano aims to revolutionize the financial sector by providing a more secure and scalable infrastructure to support the development and execution of smart contracts and decentralized applications (DApps). As a public blockchain platform, it also offers currency carrying and investment tools for traders worldwide.

On June 12, 2023, at the annual cryptocurrency summit, the American exchange Coinbase launched two new products for the U.S. market: CFTC-regulated perpetual futures trading and an American Express co-branded credit card offering up to 4% Bitcoin back, expanding the landscape of compliant derivatives and everyday payments.

Coinbase Completes Product Ecosystem
Max Branzburg, head of Consumer and Business Products, pointed out that the derivatives market currently accounts for 75% of the global cryptocurrency market trading volume, and the retail perpetual futures transaction volume on Coinbase's international platform reached $5 billion in May, but there are no corresponding services in the U.S. market.

The launch of CFTC-approved compliant perpetual futures and high-reward credit cards is aimed at targeting two major groups: leveraged traders and high-spending users.

$BTC 加密貨幣投資公司 Bitwise 近期報告預測，比特幣價格有望在年底突破 20 萬美元，公允價值更可能達到 23 萬美元。值得注意的是，此番預測的主要理據並非傳統技術指標，而是美國嚴峻的財政狀況及持續擴大的聯邦債務。

美國債務壓力：比特幣牛市新推手？
Bitwise 分析師 André Dragosch 與 Ayush Tripathi 在最新的每週加密市場展望報告中分析，美國現行的財政政策，正為比特幣創造極為有利的宏觀經濟環境。報告中提到，美國聯邦債務不斷飆升，強制性支出已超過政府收入，而前總統川普提議的「One Big Beautiful Bill Act」減稅法案，則可能使財政狀況雪上加霜。

事實上，根據美國國會預算辦公室 (CBO) 的數據，至 2030 年，美國的淨利息支付預計將增加三倍，達到驚人的 3 兆美元規模，此情況已引發市場對潛在主權違約的憂慮。Bitwise 分析師認為，在這樣財政不穩定的背景下，比特幣憑藉其稀缺性與韌性，加上去中心化特性，使其成為對沖主權風險的獨特工具。

Bitwise, a cryptocurrency investment company, recently reported that Bitcoin's price is expected to break $200,000 by the end of the year, with fair value likely reaching $230,000. It is noteworthy that the main rationale behind this forecast is not traditional technical indicators, but rather the severe fiscal situation in the United States and the continuously expanding federal debt.

U.S. Debt Pressure: A New Driver for the Bitcoin Bull Market?
Bitwise analysts André Dragosch and Ayush Tripathi analyzed in the latest weekly cryptocurrency market outlook report that the current fiscal policy in the United States is creating a highly favorable macroeconomic environment for Bitcoin. The report mentions that U.S. federal debt is skyrocketing, mandatory spending has exceeded government revenue, and the tax reduction proposal known as the 'One Big Beautiful Bill Act' suggested by former President Trump may exacerbate the fiscal situation.

In fact, according to data from the U.S. Congressional Budget Office (CBO), by 2030, the net interest payments in the U.S. are projected to triple to an astonishing $3 trillion, raising market concerns about potential sovereign defaults. Bitwise analysts believe that in this context of fiscal instability, Bitcoin, with its scarcity and resilience, along with its decentralized nature, becomes a unique tool for hedging against sovereign risk.

$ETH 加密貨幣投資公司 Bitwise 近期報告預測，比特幣價格有望在年底突破 20 萬美元，公允價值更可能達到 23 萬美元。值得注意的是，此番預測的主要理據並非傳統技術指標，而是美國嚴峻的財政狀況及持續擴大的聯邦債務。

美國債務壓力：比特幣牛市新推手？
Bitwise 分析師 André Dragosch 與 Ayush Tripathi 在最新的每週加密市場展望報告中分析，美國現行的財政政策，正為比特幣創造極為有利的宏觀經濟環境。報告中提到，美國聯邦債務不斷飆升，強制性支出已超過政府收入，而前總統川普提議的「One Big Beautiful Bill Act」減稅法案，則可能使財政狀況雪上加霜。

事實上，根據美國國會預算辦公室 (CBO) 的數據，至 2030 年，美國的淨利息支付預計將增加三倍，達到驚人的 3 兆美元規模，此情況已引發市場對潛在主權違約的憂慮。Bitwise 分析師認為，在這樣財政不穩定的背景下，比特幣憑藉其稀缺性與韌性，加上去中心化特性，使其成為對沖主權風險的獨特工具。

The cryptocurrency investment company Bitwise recently reported that the price of Bitcoin is expected to break $200,000 by the end of the year, with a fair value potentially reaching $230,000. It is noteworthy that the main rationale behind this forecast is not traditional technical indicators, but rather the severe fiscal situation in the United States and the continuously expanding federal debt.

U.S. Debt Pressure: A New Driver for the Bitcoin Bull Market?
Bitwise analysts André Dragosch and Ayush Tripathi analyzed in their latest weekly cryptocurrency market outlook report that the current fiscal policy in the United States is creating a highly favorable macroeconomic environment for Bitcoin. The report mentions that U.S. federal debt is skyrocketing, mandatory expenditures have exceeded government revenue, and the tax cut proposal known as the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" suggested by former President Trump could worsen the fiscal situation.

In fact, according to data from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), by 2030, U.S. net interest payments are expected to triple, reaching an astonishing $3 trillion, which has raised market concerns about potential sovereign defaults. Bitwise analysts believe that in such a context of fiscal instability, Bitcoin, with its scarcity and resilience, along with its decentralized nature, becomes a unique tool for hedging against sovereign risk.

The current NCI index includes nine cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), XRP, SOL, ADA, XLM, Chainlink (LINK), Litecoin (LTC), and Uniswap (UNI).

Although the NCIUS index has been updated to include six assets, the actual holdings of the NCIQ ETF are still highly concentrated in Bitcoin and Ethereum (together accounting for over 87%). This allocation ratio exposes the ETF to tracking error risk, meaning there could be a deviation between the ETF's performance and that of its tracking index.

Nasdaq hopes that by incorporating a greater variety of crypto assets, the NCIQ ETF can more accurately reflect the NCI index, providing investors with a more authentic representation of the crypto market.

Waiting for SEC approval
Whether this proposal can be approved is crucially dependent on the review by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). By submitting a 19b-4 filing to apply for new products or rule changes, the SEC's latest deadline for making a final decision on this proposal will be November 2, 2025. However, the market generally believes that approval is not difficult.

The current NCI index includes nine cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), XRP, SOL, ADA, XLM, Chainlink (LINK), Litecoin (LTC), and Uniswap (UNI).

Although the NCIUS index has been updated to include six assets, the actual holdings of the NCIQ ETF remain highly concentrated in Bitcoin and Ethereum (together accounting for over 87%). This allocation ratio exposes the ETF to tracking error risk, meaning there may be a divergence between the ETF's performance and that of its benchmark index.

Nasdaq hopes that by incorporating a broader range of crypto assets, the NCIQ ETF can more accurately reflect the NCI index, providing investors with a more authentic representation of the crypto market.

Awaiting SEC Approval
The key to whether this proposal can be approved lies in the review by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). By filing a 19b-4 document to apply for a new product or rule change, the SEC's final decision on this proposal is due by November 2, 2025. However, the market generally believes that approval is not difficult.

The current NCI index includes nine cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), as well as XRP, SOL, ADA, XLM, Chainlink (LINK), Litecoin (LTC), and Uniswap (UNI).

Despite the NCIUS index now including six assets, the actual holdings of the NCIQ ETF remain highly concentrated in Bitcoin and Ethereum (together accounting for over 87%). This allocation ratio poses a risk of tracking error for the ETF, meaning there may be a divergence between the ETF's performance and that of its tracking index.

Nasdaq expects that by incorporating a broader variety of crypto assets, the NCIQ ETF will more accurately reflect the NCI index, providing investors with a more authentic representation of the crypto market.

Awaiting SEC Approval
Whether this proposal can be approved is crucially dependent on the review by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The SEC will make a final decision on this proposal by the latest deadline of November 2, 2025, following the submission of the 19b-4 filing to apply for new products or rule changes. However, the market generally believes that approval is not difficult.

Bitcoin needs to break 107,000 to break the deadlock?

Since May 30, Bitcoin has been consolidating in a narrow range between $103,500 and $106,800, and has fallen below this range in the past 24 hours.

Michael van de Poppe, founder of MN Capital, stated that $107,000 is currently a key resistance level that needs to be overcome to trigger a new wave of upward momentum and set a new historical high.

Analyst Jelle believes that the period of Bitcoin's fluctuations may continue for a few more days until the price breaks above $105,000, which is the position of the 50-day moving average on the 4-hour K chart.

#中美贸易谈判 Winding Path and Global Impact

The outcome of the London negotiations will directly affect the direction of the China-U.S. trade war. If both sides can reach an agreement to extend or even solidify tax reduction measures, it will help stabilize the global supply chain and inject confidence into the global economy. However, considering the deep-rooted differences between the two countries in areas such as technology, national security, and geopolitics, even if the trade truce continues, it will be difficult to completely eliminate future friction.

China's pursuit of building diverse trade partnerships with more countries, as well as its proactive offer of a 'green channel' to the European Union, indicates that it is actively reshaping the global trade landscape. These efforts are not only to cope with U.S. trade pressures but also to enhance its own resilience and influence in the global economy. For the United Kingdom, as the host of this negotiation, although not directly involved, its support for free trade and warnings about the negative impacts of the trade war reflect the international community's general expectation for dialogue between the two major economies.

The Major Changes in Stablecoins: The First 10 Years of Crypto Originating from USDT (2014-2024)

In 2008, an article titled 'Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System' (https://bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf) appeared on the P2P Foundation website, authored by Satoshi Nakamoto, who would later be revered as the founding figure of the crypto industry. This was during the aftermath of the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis, which had erupted due to severe inflation of the US dollar, and the world economy was slowly rebuilding itself. Undoubtedly, the original intention behind the birth of BTC was to address the chronic ailments of a centralized monetary supply system and the cumbersome, rigid, and inflexible global financial payment system.

However, contrary to the expectations of many crypto OGs including Nakamoto, it was not BTC, which proudly waved the banner of decentralization, that ultimately fulfilled the 'peer-to-peer payment wish of BTC', but rather various stablecoins strongly tied to the US dollar and US debt.

The Rise of USDT: Rural Surrounding the City, Use Cases Capturing the Market

Looking back at Tether's rise, we can roughly categorize it as a 'three-step strategy':