News-driven factors

US CPI data lower than expected: The US October CPI announced this morning rose 3.2% year-on-year (expected 3.3%), the market bets that the Federal Reserve will pause interest rate hikes, the dollar index fell, risk assets rebounded across the board, and BTC rose over +7.5% in a single day (about +2,500 points).

Optimistic progress on spot ETF: Updates on Bitcoin spot ETF applications submitted by institutions like BlackRock, the SEC has not raised objections, strengthening expectations for institutional entry and driving buying pressure.

Mass liquidation of shorts: Over $350 million in liquidations across the network within 24 hours, short covering intensifies the uptrend.

Key technical signals

Breakthrough of key resistance: Daily strong breakout above $35,000 (previous high resistance), EMA30 and MACD form a golden cross, trading volume expands to the monthly average of 150%.

RSI enters overbought zone: 4-hour RSI reached 78, short-term pullback may be needed, but weekly level is still in an uptrend (support has moved up to $33,800).

Derivatives indicators: Perpetual contract funding rates turn positive (0.05%), market sentiment shifts from neutral to greedy.

Market outlook

Short term (1 week): If it holds above $36,000, it may test $38,000 (year-to-date high); after digesting the positive CPI, it may pull back to support at $34,500.

Medium term (1-3 months): Whether the ETF is approved is the core variable. If approved, it will open up space to $45,000; if delayed, it may retreat to $30,000 for consolidation.

Risk warning: Sudden regulatory negative news (such as SEC rejecting the ETF), a rebound in the dollar index may trigger profit-taking pressure.

Trading advice: Bulls can take profits in batches, prepare to buy on dips below $34,000; Bears should stay away, focus on the final ETF review date (expected before November 17).

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