Bitcoin's volatility falls below gold! The myth of surging prices comes to an end or the starting point of a new era?
In June 2025, the volatility ratio between Bitcoin and gold dropped to a historical low of 0.87, with Bitcoin's 30-day volatility falling for the first time to 28.7, below gold's 33.49. This data instantly ignited market controversy: Has the narrative of Bitcoin as 'digital gold' collapsed? Has the surging cycle come to an end?
New low in volatility: Maturity or crisis?
Matthew Sigel, head of digital asset research at VanEck, believes that low volatility is a sign of Bitcoin's maturity, indicating enhanced price stability, which may attract more conservative institutions to enter the market.
However, opponents sharply point out that Bitcoin is still in its early stages, and high volatility is the core driver of attracting funds. If it remains stagnant for a long time, speculative funds may withdraw and turn to high-volatility assets.
Currently, the price of Bitcoin hovers around $103,000, failing to break through the key resistance level of $104,000, with underlying market anxiety brewing.
Decoupling from gold: Independent trend or danger signal?
Glassnode data shows that the 30-day correlation between Bitcoin and gold has dropped to -0.54, the lowest since February 2025.
Historical experience shows that decoupling is often accompanied by a reversal in capital flow—by the end of 2025, Bitcoin surged while gold fell, and currently, Bitcoin's exchange reserves have dropped to a historical low of 2.43 million coins, with whale activity sharply reduced, possibly indicating that holders are entering a 'long-term lock-up' mode. If liquidity continues to contract, Bitcoin may face a dilemma of 'high control and low volatility.'
Macroeconomic game: Shift in risk appetite
The completion of the China-U.S. tariff agreement has driven global risk assets to soar, with Bitcoin briefly breaking through $101,000 in early May, while gold retreated from its high of $3,500 due to a cooling demand for safe-haven assets.
Market analysis suggests that for Bitcoin to break through its historical high, it needs to rely on a stronger risk appetite drive, while the current low volatility may weaken its appeal as an inflation hedge.
Future suspense: Death spiral or power accumulation for an explosion?
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