6.11#BTC Market Analysis！
The upward trend is still there, but be careful of the sword hanging above!
I've been staring at the weekly and daily charts of BTC for a long time. Although the overall direction hasn't changed, I still feel something is off. Let's chat about the nuances behind this:
First, let's talk about the stable part: the daily and weekly charts are still firmly in a bullish trend. Every time there’s a pullback, there are buyers ready to step in, limiting the downside potential.
But what makes one sweat is that every time the daily or weekly charts hit a new high, it tends to create a “top divergence”! It's like stepping on the gas pedal in a car but being unable to shift gears; the rally is likely just a flash in the pan. A truly healthy trend should be steadily rising alongside the 30-day moving average.
Zooming in to the 4-hour level, we are currently seeing a head and shoulders bottom formation. After a rise in the right shoulder, high-level fluctuations are quite normal. But to be honest, this breakout hasn't yet passed the pass mark; the risk of moving upwards is much greater than the potential reward, so I don't recommend chasing highs at this moment. If you really want to trade, it's better to focus on the moving averages of each level as lifelines, looking for opportunities to buy the dip.
Key lines to note: the 250 moving average on the 15-minute chart (equivalent to the 30 moving average on the 4-hour chart), the daily moving average, and the weekly 30 moving average are crucial.
In summary: looking at the full cycle from the 15-minute to the weekly charts, every upward push seems to coincide with a top divergence, which is not a good sign. Therefore, the current trading strategy is clear—sell in batches on upward movements, but as long as the moving averages at all levels are still trending upwards, there’s no need to fear a crash before a significant rise. If there’s a pullback, buy in batches at the moving average support levels.
Current key price levels: Upper resistance zone 110485-111422 (suitable for quick in and out), lower first support 108730-108022 (watching the market), second support 104999-103666 (placing orders to catch the falling knife), and even lower at 100210-96426 can also place orders, valid for ten days.
