If you are still hesitating about where XRP's ceiling lies, perhaps you should take a look at this chart: a huge W pattern spanning over seven years, quietly taking shape at the monthly level since 2018. And its ultimate goal may point directly to a market cap of $1.5 trillion and a token price of $25.
This prediction is not without basis. Technical analyst EGRAG Crypto pointed out in his latest research that XRP's market value is replicating a very classic 'W-bottom structure'. This is not just a pattern; it is a comprehensive signal of capital inflow, chip cleaning, and the initiation of a new wave of upward movement over a long period.
From 2018 to 2025: Seven years of accumulation of the W pattern
Looking back at history, XRP reached a market cap peak of $128.5 billion in January 2018, then fell to a low of $5 billion in March 2020; but in the 2021 bull market, it rebounded quickly to $89 billion.
This forms the bottom and center of the first 'W' pattern. However, due to the LUNA incident and market systemic risks, XRP once again dropped to $13.8 billion in June 2022, but rebounded to $195 billion by January 2025, forming the second 'W' bottom and surpassing the previous high.
Currently, it is hovering between a market cap of $120 billion to $145 billion, and the market is performing a 'retest confirmation' of this structural line. As long as it does not lose this range, it is equivalent to confirming the 'breakthrough establishment' of the W pattern.
Four major model deductions suggest XRP could reach a maximum of $25.
EGRAG proposed four methods of deduction, showing the possible changes in XRP's price under different upward targets:
Method one: Non-logarithmic volatility measurement
Market cap target: $270 billion
Corresponding price: $4.5
Logical basis: Based on the non-logarithmic amplitude of the W pattern, extending upward by 1.618 times the Fibonacci ratio.
Method two: Logarithmic scale extension
Market cap target: $1.5 trillion
Corresponding price: $25
Growth space: Current price (about $2.29) increases nearly 991%
Logical basis: Doubling space of the W structure under logarithmic levels, combined with long-term supply-demand relationships.
Method three: Historical reenactment (based on the 2017 trajectory)
Market cap target: $450 billion
Corresponding price: $7.6
Growth logic: If XRP replicates the upward amplitude from the current breakout point to the Fibonacci range of 1 to 1.618 from 2017.
Method four: Market cap/price synergy prediction (combined with XRP/BTC ratio)
Market cap target: $1.2 trillion
Corresponding price: $20
Technical pattern: Monthly bullish triangular flag + accelerating market cap upward trajectory
Although these models adopt different perspectives for deduction, they ultimately converge to a consensus: XRP is at a critical point of a large-scale breakout. As long as the market confirms the upward trend, 'double-digit prices' may become a reality rather than a fantasy.
Why hasn't the market fully bought into it yet?
In XRP's logic, there are two long-term 'heart knots':
The shadow of the SEC lawsuit has not dissipated: Although some rulings are favorable to Ripple, regulatory policies remain uncertain.
Complex token economic model: Although XRP's current circulation is stable, the early distribution mechanism, lock-ups, and institutional holdings still leave some investors doubtful.
However, these two issues are undergoing subtle changes. On one hand, global regulations on stablecoins are tending towards unification, with the US GENIUS Act, MiCA Act, and others indicating that regulation is being implemented rather than suppressed; on the other hand, Ripple continues to expand real applications of XRP for cross-border payments, CBDCs, and enterprise ledger settlements.
This makes XRP no longer just a project of 'speculating on concepts', but quietly becoming a foundational layer currency between the off-chain world and on-chain payment systems.
Alpha tips: How to identify breakout signals in complex cycles in advance?
The W pattern and Fibonacci structure are not something every investor can timely understand. In the face of multiple price fluctuations and structural evolution, how to avoid being misled by noise? This is where Mlion.ai can be of great help.
You can use the following modules of Mlion.ai to accurately assess XRP's market status:
AI strategy illustration: Upload your XRP price chart, and AI will help you identify possible technical structures, such as W patterns, triangular flags, etc.
Sentiment radar analysis: Track changes in XRP sentiment on social media, Telegram groups, and KOL tweets, to see if there is synchronous capital inflow.
On-chain address tracking: Analyze whether key whale addresses are accumulating or transferring, assisting in determining if it is a false signal or the start of a primary upward wave.
Price prediction model: Combine on-chain and off-chain data to predict price volatility ranges over different time windows, helping you set reasonable take-profit and stop-loss strategies.
Conclusion: Will the dream of $1.5 trillion begin to be realized from the W structure?
In every round of the crypto bull market, there is always an 'old veteran' that tells the market with astonishing gains: 'I am still here, and I can come back again.' XRP may be standing in such a position.
If this W structure really starts as EGRAG mentioned, its target price will not only be coordinates on the technical chart but also the real landing point under capital consensus.
Are you ready?
Disclaimer: The above content is for information sharing only and does not constitute any investment advice. The risks in the crypto asset market are extremely high; please operate based on your own judgment.