Big things are coming! China and the United States hold secret negotiations in London
1. China-US negotiations: lively on the surface, but undercurrents
Trump praised the "good talks" for the first time, but China's attitude remained tough - which made me feel a little "there is something fishy here".
The most likely compromise plan at present is:
The US side made concessions: allowing Nvidia to sell some mid-range chips to China;
China made concessions: resuming the supply of rare earths to the three major US automakers to solve their urgent needs;
Joint concessions: extending the "tariff truce" for 90 days, and not imposing tariffs on each other for the time being.
But don't be happy too soon! The EDA software control and Huawei Shengteng chip ban led by US Secretary of Commerce Lutnick have no intention of loosening up. I'm afraid we have to gnaw on this hard bone of technology war.
2. Impact on the currency circle: short-term caution, long-term calm
If the talks are successful: short-term bearish for Bitcoin. Because funds may flow back to the stock market from the currency circle. Historically, Bitcoin rose by 22% during the Sino-US negotiations in January 2024, but funds withdrew after the agreement was reached.
If the talks fail: Bitcoin may be a "blessing in disguise"! After Trump imposed tariffs in April this year, Bitcoin first plummeted by 8%, but rebounded violently by 12% in two weeks37. It is becoming more and more like "digital gold" - the more chaotic it is, the more valuable it is. Standard Chartered even said: If the deadlock continues, Bitcoin may hit $200,000 by the end of the year.
But be careful: institutions are quietly buying the bottom! BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF has recently received inflows for 33 consecutive days, and has attracted $4 billion in the past two weeks48-big funds are obviously betting on the long term.
3. Has the currency circle been "explosion-proof" in advance?
When the news of the negotiations came out in May, Bitcoin only fell slightly by 0.3% when the US stock market fell sharply, indicating that the market has begun to "desensitize" to such news. More importantly:
New Hampshire has just passed the first "Cryptocurrency Strategic Reserve" bill in the United States. The state's fiscal budget is $15.4 billion. According to the bill, up to 5% can be used to buy Bitcoin8-this money is not a huge amount, but it has great symbolic significance! Local governments in the United States have begun to regard Bitcoin as a "strategic asset", and more states may follow in the future.
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