1. Long-term Holding (HODL) Strategy: Exchange time for space.
Core Logic
Scarcity Supports Long-term Value: The total supply of Bitcoin is fixed at 21 million coins, and the halving mechanism (reduced to 3.125 BTC/block in 2024) leads to a continuous contraction in supply. Historical data shows that the previous three halvings triggered bull markets: 2012 ($10 to $1,000), 2016 ($400 to $20,000), 2020 ($9,000 to $69,000).
Bull Market Cycle Rules: Bull markets usually last about a year, while bear markets can last up to two years. If we are currently at the beginning of a bull market in 2025, long-term holding may enjoy the benefits of the cycle.
Risk Hedging Attribute: In times of high inflation or economic uncertainty (e.g., during the 2020 pandemic), Bitcoin is often seen as 'digital gold,' leading to surging demand and rising prices.
Applicable Scenarios
Long-term optimism for the Bitcoin ecosystem: Applications like Lightning Network, DeFi, etc., continue to grow in demand.
Lower Risk Tolerance: Avoid anxiety from short-term volatility and reduce trading costs (e.g., fees from frequent buying and selling).
Those with no time to monitor: Smooth costs through dollar-cost averaging, such as fixed monthly purchases to reduce timing risks.
Risk Warning
Low Capital Utilization: May experience several years of sideways movement before a bull market (e.g., 2018-2020), with funds locked in.
Psychological Test: Must endure over 80% retracement (e.g., from $20,000 to $3,000 in 2018), requiring immense patience.
2. Volatile Holding (Swing Trading) Strategy: Capture short-term volatility profits.
Core Logic
Technical Analysis Tools:
Moving Average System: A short-term moving average (e.g., 5-day) crossing above a long-term moving average (e.g., 20-day) forms a 'golden cross' as a buy signal, while the opposite 'death cross' signals a sell.
MACD Indicator: A bullish signal is indicated when the DIF line crosses above the DEA line and is above the zero axis.
Candlestick Patterns: Patterns like 'Morning Star' predict a rebound, while 'Evening Star' suggests a pullback.
Market Sentiment Utilization: Gradually build positions during the end of a bear market (e.g., $15,000 in January 2023), and gradually take profits at the beginning of a bull market (e.g., breaking $100,000 in 2025).
Applicable Scenarios
Experienced Traders: Able to quickly identify trends (e.g., breaking key resistance levels) and execute stop-loss and take-profit orders.
High Risk Tolerance: Accepts daily fluctuations of 10%-20%, such as Bitcoin dropping 5% in one day in May 2025.
Volatile Market Environment: For instance, in 2024, prices fluctuate between $60,000 and $80,000, and swing trading might yield higher returns than long-term holding.
Risk Warning
Missed Opportunity Risk: If a bull market suddenly starts (e.g., Tesla announced investment in Bitcoin in 2021, resulting in a 20% one-day increase), one might miss the main upward wave.
Transaction Cost Erosion: Frequent trading (e.g., buying and selling once a week) may lead to annual fees of 5%-10%.
Black Swan Events: Events like policy crackdowns (e.g., China's mining crackdown in 2021) or exchange collapses (e.g., FTX incident) can cause price crashes.
3. Strategy Selection Framework: Varies by individual and timing.
Personal Profile Matching
Long-term holding suitable for:
Investment goal is to preserve wealth (e.g., against inflation);
No time to study technical indicators;
Low risk tolerance (e.g., cannot accept daily losses of over 10%).
Swing trading is suitable for:
Skilled in technical analysis (e.g., proficient in using Fibonacci retracement levels);
Ample time to monitor the market (e.g., professional traders);
Pursuing high returns while accepting high risks (e.g., target annual return of 50%+).
Market Environment Assessment
Beginning of a Bull Market: Focus on long-term holding, with some positions in swing trading (e.g., 80% core assets + 20% swing).
End of a Bear Market: Gradually dollar-cost average (e.g., buying 5% of total funds each month), while also using 10% of funds to bet on rebounds.
Volatile Market: Strict swing trading, setting stop-loss levels (e.g., 5%) and take-profit levels (e.g., 15%-20%).
Combination Strategy Recommendations
Core-Satellite Strategy: 70% of funds for long-term holding, 30% for swing trading.
Hedging Tools: Use options to hedge against downside risks (e.g., buying put options) or leverage futures for amplified returns (with caution).
4. Practical Case Comparisons: The gap from theory to reality.
Long-term Holding Cases
Successful Case: Bought 1 BTC (about $400) in 2016, sold in 2021 ($69,000), yielding a 172x return.
Failed Case: Sold at the bear market bottom in 2018 ($3,000), losing 85%.
Swing Trading Cases
Successful Case: Bought in October 2023 ($15,000), sold in March 2024 ($40,000), yielding a 167% return.
Failed Case: Chased prices in May 2025 ($130,000) without setting a stop-loss, dropped to $90,000 a week later, losing 30%.
5. Ultimate Advice: There is no optimal strategy, only the most suitable strategy.
Newbie Entry Path
Step 1: Test the waters with a small amount of capital (e.g., 5% of total assets) to experience market fluctuations.
Step 2: Learn technical analysis (e.g., Japanese candlestick techniques) and fundamental analysis (e.g., halving cycles).
Step 3: Choose strategies based on risk-return preferences and gradually adjust position ratios.
Tool Recommendations
Data Analysis: TradingView (technical indicators), Glassnode (on-chain data).
Risk Management: Set stop-loss and take-profit orders (e.g., using 3Commas automated trading tools).
Information Acquisition: Follow CoinDesk (news) and Cointelegraph (in-depth analysis).
Mentality Management
Avoid FOMO: Do not blindly chase prices at the end of a bull market (e.g., $69,000 on April 2021).
Reject Leverage: Even with 10x leverage, a 10% daily fluctuation can lead to liquidation.
Long-term Perspective: Bitcoin has had an annualized return of over 100% in the past 10 years, but one must endure more than three bull-bear cycles.
Conclusion: Investing in Bitcoin is both a cognitive and psychological exercise. Long-term holding requires belief in its 'digital gold' attribute, while swing trading requires respect for market fluctuations. Regardless of the path chosen, remember: sow in bear markets, harvest in bull markets, cycles repeat, and patience is key. A single tree cannot make a forest, and a lone sail cannot travel far! In the crypto circle, if you do not have a good network or first-hand information, then I suggest you follow me, and I will guide you to safety. Welcome to the team!!!