Dogecoin is currently priced at $0.19, down about 28% from the March high of $0.26, but the weekly chart indicates that it still has the potential to reach $1.
Cryptocurrency analyst Maelius* points out that DOGE is currently in a critical demand zone ($0.12-$0.17), which served as resistance from 2022-23 and has now turned into support. The 200-week moving average ($0.1415) coinciding with the ascending trendline reinforces the stability of the bottom.
According to wave analysis: The larger cycle rises to $0.23 in March 2024 as 'Wave 1', a pullback to $0.12 in October as 'Wave 2', and currently may initiate the 'Wave 3' main upward phase. The smaller cycle peaked at $0.48 last December as 'Wave 1' and is currently pulling back as 'Wave 2', forming a nested structure of '1-2.1-2'.
If the pattern holds, we may enter the 'third wave of the third wave'—the strongest upward phase in Elliott Theory, targeting $1.10, potentially reaching $1.50-$1.80.
Key signals and resistance levels
Moving Average System: The 50-week moving average ($0.205) serves as short-term resistance, and a breakout may challenge $0.26 (May high) and $0.40 (December 2023 resistance).
Momentum Indicator: The weekly WaveTrend oscillation indicator shows weakening bearish momentum, with the histogram turning from red to gray, suggesting a possible trend reversal.
On-chain data supports bullish logic
Whale Activity: A net outflow of $10.90 million in DOGE from exchanges within 24 hours indicates that large funds are buying on dips.
Leverage Betting: Long positions reach $27.47 million, concentrated at the $0.1776 support level; short positions are $14.89 million at $0.1868, and a price breakout may trigger short covering.
Risk Warning: If the price falls below $0.14, it will break the two-year upward trendline, invalidating the bullish logic. Currently, pay close attention to the daily closing performance at $0.19; if it holds, it may initiate a 32% short-term increase.
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