When a country's tariff policy begins to trigger an urgent warning from the World Bank, we must re-examine the direction of this global economic game. Is it a clever negotiating chip? Or an accelerator toward the abyss of 'de-globalization'?
At the beginning of June, the World Bank rarely issued a warning: due to the ongoing push for increased tariffs by the Trump administration, US economic growth may be directly 'halved' — plunging from 2.8% in 2024 to 1.4% in 2025. The global economy will also inevitably fall into a low-growth trap. This judgment is more impactful than any Wall Street analyst's prediction.
01 | The 'echo' of Trump's tariffs: Who can avoid it?
In this significant report, the World Bank used a shocking set of data to depict the future situation:
The growth rate of the US GDP is expected to drop from 2.8% to 1.4%.
The global economic growth forecast has been lowered from 2.7% to 2.3%.
If an additional 10% import tax is imposed, global GDP growth may fall to 1.8%.
Mexico is set to become the biggest loser, with growth expectations plummeting to 0.2%.
The logic behind this is simple: trade barriers are rising while supply chains are becoming increasingly fragile. The global market's exports to the US have plummeted, especially in the Eurozone, Japan, and India, where the response to tariffs is more pronounced. Economies that rely on resource exports, such as South Africa, Iran, and commodity countries, are facing secondary shocks due to sharply reduced demand.
This is a triple contraction of currency, supply chains, and confidence.
02 | 'This is not alarmism' — when authoritative institutions begin to issue warnings.
In contrast, both the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) are also simultaneously lowering growth expectations. The OECD's estimates indicate that the US economic growth rate may drop to 1.6% by 2025, accompanied by inflation pressures as high as 4%.
In response to this series of downgrades, the White House's response is very direct: 'Doomsday predictions are unfounded.' But the problem is, the market has given another set of answers:
Recently, global commodity prices have significantly declined.
The volatility index (VIX) of the financial markets has surged.
Investors' holdings in safe-haven assets (such as gold and US Treasury bonds) have greatly increased.
Exchange rate volatility has expanded, putting pressure on emerging market currencies.
In other words, capital is already voting with its feet.
03 | Under the risk of decoupling, who can navigate the downturn?
It is worth noting that despite the overall growth experiencing downgrades, China and India are still regarded as 'safe zones' for medium to long-term growth. Especially India, whose economic growth, although slightly adjusted, is still expected to maintain one of the fastest growth rates in the world.
For most developing economies that rely on exports, this macro background means: traditional trade-oriented strategies are failing. Countries with weak financial foundations, high external dependencies, and sensitivity to the US dollar will first expose structural weaknesses.
Therefore, in this turbulent period, how to capture high-frequency signals, assess the actual impact of policy changes, and optimize asset allocation strategies has become unprecedentedly important.
04 | How to respond? Use AI investment research to capture policy risks in advance.
If you are still making decisions based on news headlines, then this cycle may not be friendly to you. In the face of global policy and macroeconomic uncertainties, information efficiency is the strongest moat.
Mlion.ai's rapid news analysis + macro risk model is specifically tailored for this complex environment:
Quickly identify the market impact of global macro policies (such as the Federal Reserve, tariffs, exchange rate policies).
Real-time tracking of the interlinked responses of commodities, the US dollar index, and interest rate markets.
Using sentiment radar and on-chain dynamics to anticipate the flow of safe-haven funds in advance.
You are no longer just an after-the-fact analyst, but have the opportunity to become someone who acts ahead of the market.
In the face of a global policy storm, those who can stand at the forefront of data, rationally sift through signals, and timely adjust strategies will find their own structural opportunities amid the recession.
05 | Conclusion: As the world enters a 'slow growth' mode, do not use old thinking to walk a new path.
The World Bank's concerns are not just about fluctuations in economic indicators, but rather a rupture in a global development logic: stagnation in living standards outside of Asia, with the global South becoming a 'no-growth zone'. This will reshape the geopolitical economic order and change the value foundation of digital assets and traditional finance.
In this context, crypto assets are not just a hedge tool, but may also be a hedge against the old financial system. Whether one can grasp AI-driven market insights will determine if you can find the right direction in this reconstruction.
Disclaimer: The content of this article is for information sharing only and does not constitute any investment advice. Investing involves risks, and one should be cautious when entering the market.