While the market focuses on the oscillation and consolidation of BTC and ETH, Solana (SOL) has quietly completed a beautiful technical pullback and rebound: after hitting a low of $143 in early June, it rose 8.5% within three days. This trend has rekindled some bulls' hopes, but the question arises— is this a genuine recovery, or just another 'trap' in a structural rebound?
Let us dissect this potential Solana 'counterattack battle' from multiple dimensions.
Support test successful, but the structure remains in doubt.
In the past three weeks, SOL's overall trend has remained under pressure, with the price dropping from $155 to $143, a pullback of 7%. During this period, approximately 2.8 million SOL flowed into centralized exchanges (mainly Binance), which released a subtle signal at the on-chain data level: short-term selling pressure has increased, and the market is beginning to reassess Solana's valuation center.
But the key is: the support at $143 was verified for its strength in April—**it has stood firm again and quickly rebounded 8.5% to above $155.** This has built a 'springboard' for bulls to stage a counterattack.
Using Mlion.ai's on-chain address analysis tool, you can further track whether these large SOL inflows to exchanges have begun to flow out or re-enter cold wallets, thus determining the change in whale behavior.
Volume and momentum indicators release complex signals.
Although prices have rebounded, the 20-day average of the volume histogram is still declining, indicating that the main capital has not yet significantly returned, and the OBV (On-Balance Volume) indicator has not reversed its downward trend.
Especially on the 4-hour chart, the OBV is still running along a downward trend line. Although it seems poised to break through, a complete reversal structure has not yet formed. In other words, buyers have not truly gained dominance.
The MFI (Money Flow Index) has continued to rise over the past three days, indicating that short-term buying pressure is indeed increasing; however, this rise is still insufficient to confirm a trend reversal, and can only be viewed as a positive but early rebound signal.
Mlion.ai's strategy diagram function can automatically identify the current market structure, key support/resistance levels by uploading your candlestick chart, and propose bullish or bearish probability judgments based on on-chain capital changes. This is especially applicable to SOL's phase rebound market.
Where is the true 'victory signal' for the bulls?
Currently, SOL's technical structure remains bearish: since the peak of $178, $162 has become the key 'secondary high point.' Only if this position is effectively broken can a reversal structure be established, attracting swing traders to enter and go long.
In other words:
If SOL can break through $162, it will form a phase structural reversal.
If it maintains sideways near $155, it may still build a second bottom.
If it falls below $143 again, it will return to the original weak oscillation pattern.
This means that short-term opportunities do indeed exist, but confirmation signals need to be awaited. At this point, sentiment analysis, capital flow, and candlestick structure are all essential.
How to identify the 'true and false rebounds' of SOL's trend?
Utilizing the following functions of Mlion.ai may provide you with a more scientific judgment of support:
News Deep Analysis: Real-time integration of Solana-related news and on-chain dynamics to assess the impact of news-driven influences;
AI Chart Strategy: Automatically identify the current trend structure of SOL (consolidation/breakthrough/top) and provide technical alerts;
On-chain Data Dashboard: Track key data such as Solana's staking ratio, exchange inflows/outflows, whale address changes, etc., to avoid blind bottom fishing;
Price Prediction: Combine social sentiment, technical indicators, and on-chain data to assist in judging Solana's upcoming volatility range.
Conclusion: Wait for confirmation, so the layout is not blind.
Solana is building a crucial 'sentiment turning point.' It may not be the starting point of a surge, but it is a key signal for judging whether the trend will reverse.
If you are a hedging or trend trader, you might want to closely watch whether there is a volume breakout above $162, as this could mean that this rebound is not just a 'flash in the pan.'
With Mlion.ai's multi-dimensional AI judgment tools, you will no longer place orders based on intuition but rather based on data, gaining insight into trends and seizing the initiative in the next Solana outbreak.
Disclaimer: The content of this article is for informational sharing only and does not constitute any investment advice. Cryptocurrencies carry high risks, and investments should be made cautiously.
