As shown in the picture, the current market situation is actually quite common; Bitcoin is forming a complex top, which is a bullish top. Earlier this year, Bitcoin also experienced a surge followed by a pullback, then created a false breakout top, and afterward, a major collapse occurred.
Coincidentally, in March last year, Bitcoin also experienced a bullish top, similarly rebounding after a drop of over 10%, forming another two tops. However, that time, the top did not break through the previous high and then fell all the way down, taking months to reach a bottom.
In April and November 2021, there was also a bullish top where institutions distributed at high levels; this time is likely to be similar. In the short term, such a continuous rise of 10% without any pullback is also quite rare; however, there is a high probability that the CPI data on Wednesday will be bearish, and I think there will be a significant pullback then.
Returning to the present, Bitcoin is very likely to double top and pull back. However, to be more cautious, I think it's safer to wait for a false breakout before shorting. This means waiting for Bitcoin to break through the previous high and then fall back below it, forming a false breakout. This is a sign of weakness, and at this point, shorting with low leverage for the long term is a more stable choice, as the pullback could be quite significant. If Bitcoin manages to reclaim the previous high again, then it's time to cut losses. Additionally, shorting coins like ZK and ZRO, which are about to undergo significant unlocks, actually has a higher chance of success.
