What’s happening?! The U.S. job market has suddenly collapsed! The latest unemployment numbers have reached their highest level since the pandemic began. Is a major recession quietly approaching?
First of all, the U.S. employment data has begun to plummet sharply. According to the latest data this week, the number of unemployment claims in the U.S. exceeded expectations, rising to 248,000, the highest level since the pandemic began in 2021. What’s even more concerning is that it has increased for four consecutive weeks, forming an upward trend, and this is not a joke.
And the culprit is probably known to everyone, which is that the subsequent impact of Trump's tariffs is beginning to reflect on the economic level. In the coming months, unemployment and inflation will only continue to rise, while the Federal Reserve cannot lower interest rates and can only maintain extremely high rates, suppressing the economy. This is really not a good sign, and many retail investors are unaware of this data.
Moreover, given that Bitcoin has already risen 60% from 70,000, there’s huge room for correction. A drop from 110,000 to 100,000 is just a small correction; we are still far from the bottom. A sharp drop in the short term will lead to some small rebounds, and this is actually an opportunity to escape and set up short positions.
In addition to employment, inflation is also a serious problem. In yesterday's latest Producer Price Index, the PPI skyrocketed from 2.4% to 2.6%, and Wednesday's CPI data also began to rise. But Shuqin can responsibly tell you that next month will be even more exaggerated; just look at the chart.
The chart shows the Federal Reserve's own inflation forecast data, and I don’t need to elaborate on its accuracy. The May data released this week is very close to their predictions, and the same goes for the previous months, which were also precise. So what about next month? What will the inflation expected by the Federal Reserve be next month?
The answer is very shocking. The Federal Reserve predicts that the CPI in June will continue to rise to 2.6%, while the core CPI will even increase to 2.95%. Rounding up, that’s about 3%, which is very exaggerated. What’s even more exaggerated is that according to analysts at Wells Fargo, the CPI is expected to reach 4% or even 5% this fall.
After all, according to Trump’s latest statement, he will reach a trade agreement with China for a 50% tariff, which means that Chinese goods sold in the United States will rise by nearly 50%, making a refrigerator go from 500 dollars to 750 dollars. Although not all U.S. goods are from China, the base is too large, and this 50% increase makes it really easy for prices to rise by 1% or 2%. Moreover, other countries' imported goods have also seen at least a 10% tariff increase, so Shuqin is really curious whether the market can still be so optimistic when the data comes out in the next two months. The answer is obvious.
Additionally, I don’t know if everyone has checked the on-chain data, but it seems that Ethereum's whales are about to run away. Wall Street cryptocurrency giant CumberLand transferred over 40,000 ETH to C before the big drop, which clearly indicates an intention to cash out at a high price. If you pay attention to on-chain data, you can escape the peak just like the institutions; isn’t it time for you to hit follow?
From the perspective of Ethereum's large-scale K-line, there is very strong resistance around 2800, which is a resistance level that has rebounded multiple times before and was also a previous support level during declines. It is the exit point for many institutions. I think the probability of it peaking here is quite high. Additionally, you have to consider that ETH has risen over 100% in the past two months. With such a large profit margin, even if it can continue to rise in the future, it will still need to go through a deep correction.
Additionally, there’s something I must remind you of: the weight of U.S. inflation—the price of crude oil has risen 40% since the low in April. Note that it’s not a 4% increase, but a 40% increase. So June's inflation could be terrifying; this data will be released on July 15th, so don’t say I didn’t remind you.
So even without a Middle Eastern conflict, the market was so FOMO a few days ago, yet cryptocurrency prices still couldn’t rise because big funds see much more than retail investors and are preparing to hedge. Shuqin mentioned this in previous issues, and Bitcoin’s price has dropped from 110,000 to 102,000. Congratulations to those who listened to my advice and escaped at the peak; if you shorted a bit along with me, that would be really satisfying!
For this bottom, I’m looking first at the CME gap of 92,000, but you also need to know that the market won’t just drop to 92,000 in one go; there will be many rebounds in between. So, as Shuqin mentioned a few days ago, Bitcoin will first drop from 110,000 to 106,500, then rebound near 108,300 before continuing to drop. The short-term target is around 104,000.
Take a look at this chart again; doesn’t it fit perfectly? Also, our ZK and Trump, which have been dormant for a few weeks, have finally hit a big waterfall. We update these operations and points in real-time every day, so feel free to check it out if you're interested.
Moreover, there’s something Shuqin is very, very concerned about: next year, Powell will complete his term and resign, so Trump will finally be able to appoint a new Federal Reserve chair. No need to think about it; he will definitely appoint someone who can lower interest rates. Just look at what he has been saying these past two days; the Federal Reserve should lower interest rates by 200 basis points, which means lowering rates eight times. Just think about how aggressive he can be.
So in the second half of next year, when Trump appoints a new president, it will really be a time for major monetary easing, and it won’t just be lowering interest rates; they will also print money to stimulate the economy. This won’t just be a short-term stimulus but will last for several years. By then, whether it’s Bitcoin or altcoins, a new era will dawn, and an unprecedented surge will begin. This is an opportunity for class leap.
Are you ready?