分析师舒琴

Here it comes! The latest unemployment rate and employment data from the United States are here. Will there be a recession?
The unemployment rate remains unchanged, with little impact!
Although the number of non-farm jobs has decreased, the decline is relatively small and below expectations, which is slightly positive~

Bitcoin breaks through, but why isn't it rising? Has it stalled? It turns out something big is about to happen!

Tonight, the U.S. will release the most important unemployment rate and non-farm payroll data. How is the U.S. economy? We'll find out, just take a look at the chart.

Currently, the market expects the unemployment rate to remain unchanged, which is not bad. However, considering the tariffs, I personally think this data will be 4.2%, but there is also a chance it could go to 4.3%, a moderate increase, which is not necessarily bearish and could actually help ease inflation and support the Fed in lowering interest rates.

The expectation for job numbers has been cut quite a lot, almost halved, which I don't particularly like. Unemployment data is a double-edged sword; a moderate increase is beneficial for the Fed to lower rates, which is somewhat positive, but if the unemployment rate spikes too much and job numbers drop too drastically, the market could panic.

Based on the current market expectations, the market is slightly optimistic, and U.S. stocks have risen slightly in pre-market trading. However, the final result will still depend on the 8:30 data, at which time Shuqin will release the information promptly. Don't forget to follow me~🐰🐰

It's rising, Ethereum is catching up!

😅Just after sending it for 1 hour, Bitcoin broke through... so exciting!

US stocks have broken through, and is Bitcoin catching up?

Now the Nasdaq futures have broken through the previous high, experiencing a significant V recovery, not only recovering from last night's negative GDP growth news but also rising even higher, which is not as bleak as everyone thought.

The correlation between US stocks and the cryptocurrency market is substantial; as US stocks break through, Bitcoin also has the opportunity to completely surpass 95,000 and reach new heights. With Prague approaching, ETH is also strengthening. I still hope it can reach 2000. That's right, I still hold my ETH spot, having bought it from 1400 until now; it hasn't been easy.

However, the US stock market has not opened yet. This is a futures breakthrough, which feels a bit hollow. It's just a guiding indication; more significant trading volume will come after the US stock market opens tonight.

So this is also why hot money in the cryptocurrency market is still observing and hasn't rushed into Bitcoin. Everyone is waiting for the US stock market to open, hoping that it can rise normally, solidifying this breakthrough, and a new bullish trend will emerge~

The latest PCE inflation data is here! Come and take a look.
This PCE data is slightly bearish!
This core PCE data is slightly bearish! Both are higher than expected.
Sigh, plus the recently released first-quarter data from the US is negative 0.3%, which may indicate a recession... Now we just wait for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.

Sudden negative news. The U.S. first quarter GDP data has come out, and it's negative... Sigh, still waiting for positive PCE data, but suddenly we got a negative GDP news..

Break the deadlock! Tonight is the most hopeful day in the cryptocurrency world.

Bitcoin has been stuck at 96,000 for a long time, just one step away. Tonight at 10 PM, the world will be watching the PCE inflation data, and the results may come as a surprise.

According to expert predictions, this PCE will drop sharply by 0.3%! Bringing it to the normal value of 2.2%, while the core PCE will also decrease significantly by 0.2%, providing the Federal Reserve with a reason to cut interest rates.

So as long as the data at 10 PM meets that expectation, I believe the cryptocurrency market will see a considerable rise, especially if Bitcoin breaks through 96,000, which could pull it up further.

The above is the predicted data, hoping everything goes smoothly, and Shu Qin will be the first to release the results and analysis at 10 PM to help everyone, so don’t forget to follow me~😊

Urgent update: The first quarter GDP data from the United States has come out, and it’s negative, a super bearish signal. Sigh, still waiting for the PCE data, and suddenly we got a GDP bearish result.

The US dollar is somewhat collapsing, dropping from 111 all the way down to 97, which is unimaginable for the world's largest currency!

The significant depreciation of the dollar is beneficial for the cryptocurrency market in the long run, but there is one piece of data that everyone should be cautious about: the unemployment rate may rise due to tariffs. Therefore, I feel that there is a lot of uncertainty in May, but by June, when the Federal Reserve starts to continuously lower interest rates, the market will improve significantly.

In the short term, Bitcoin has risen to the resistance zone around 95,000 to 96,000, which presents an opportunity to short. We shorted again yesterday, marking our second short position. We mentioned this yesterday as well, and I wonder if we can still hit this resistance for a pullback on the third short.

Additionally, I encouraged everyone yesterday to firmly hold onto ETH, riding the wave of the Prague upgrade hype. Today, it has broken the recent high, and I hope that next week it can approach 2000 or so, so we can take comprehensive profits. I update these operations every day, consistently for 1000 days, regardless of holidays or injuries; I am always here. Let's keep pushing forward together!

In the hospital, injured, not sure if I need surgery. I will update everyone once I get home.

Incremental funds are here! Just now, after a 5-day interval, Tether, the parent company of USDT, has issued another 1 billion USDT. This money is being rapidly distributed to major exchanges to replenish reserves, indicating that institutions/retail investors are exchanging for USDT to enter the market.

The influx of hot money is definitely a positive signal, but since we have made so much profit during this rebound, I am considering taking profits at highs over the next few weeks. For this round, I think it’s okay to exit 50% at Bitcoin 95k, and then take all profits as we approach the previous high of around 100k.

Because previously, we went in too aggressively, trying to greedily catch the last penny, believing that the halving bull market consensus was still there, but ultimately did not escape the peak. This experience has made me more cautious about assessing risk and profit when making trades. I won't re-enter with a large position unless there is a significant pullback.

Two weeks ago, I took profits from the Sol increase and switched to Pepe and ETH. The Pepe contract is for short-term trading, and I have sold half of my spot. I am still holding ETH, waiting for the upgrade to sell at a higher price, hoping to reach 2000 or higher. We will closely monitor this over the next two weeks.

Let's talk about the opportunities in the cryptocurrency world this week.
Bitcoin hit 95,000 for the first time and faced resistance. Shorting it was very stable, and if it returns to 95,000, we can actually short again, taking profits around 93,000. Of course, the second short isn't as stable as the first, but we can still try a small amount. Just be sure to set a stop-loss; we operate in real-time.

However, shorting Bitcoin is for short-term trading, while I still hold long-term Ethereum spot. I'll hold it until around the May 7 upgrade to see if there's a peak, and then I'll sell.

I think the rebound space for smaller coins is larger than that of Bitcoin, so keep an eye on Pepe and Floki. However, Pepe's market cap is already 4 billion, while a smaller option to consider is OZK, which has a market cap of 40 million and fluctuates 20% daily. It will announce significant good news on April 30 and May 7, which should lead to a rally.

Then XRP surged yesterday and has increased by 6% since then. Congratulations to those who were also positioned. As I mentioned yesterday, just exit at high points; there's no need to chase. Or be a bit greedy—by the latest, when the futures ETF goes live on April 30, you should be out entirely, otherwise, the good news will be fully priced in and a pullback will begin.

It's on fire! XRP is skyrocketing!
The SEC just approved the XRP ETF, which will be listed on April 30! I just talked about the ambush yesterday, and today it exploded, oh my. Everyone get ready to take profits at the highs, congratulations!

What will be the trend of Bitcoin next? Signals are coming!

The data that can directly affect the cryptocurrency market now is next Wednesday's PCE inflation data, and the results will be surprising, as shown in the chart. The market predicts a significant decrease in inflation, with PCE dropping by 0.3% and core PCE dropping by 0.2%, rather than the inflation increase that everyone imagines.

A steep drop in PCE is beneficial for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, which will give Powell a way out. So, if there are no other interfering factors, this should be a good positive signal next Wednesday, and the market may act in advance.

However, overall, I think if there are high points, it is actually time to take profits, as various cryptocurrencies have risen significantly. Bitcoin has already recovered to bull market prices, and altcoin season has also surged. We had a 30% gain with Sol, and then played with the altcoin Pepe, gaining another 30%. In the bigger picture, I am reducing my positions rather than increasing them, buying when no one cares, and selling when there is a lot of noise.

So in the next week or two, there may be some positive developments, and I believe it is a good time to exit some long-term positions; this is the overall direction.
As for short-term positions, we will make several waves based on the market trend. For example, with ETH due to positive upgrades, I mentioned yesterday that if there is a pullback, we would buy, and today it has surged to a new high again. Additionally, I have also guided everyone to play several Pepe waves, selling high and buying low, which has actually yielded quite a bit of profit.

Pepe's short position can pay attention to the support level near 0.089, take a rebound to 0.093, a slight break can be a stop loss, and if you're bold, you can go short. The next support is above 0.083, and you can consider re-entering here.

The crackdown has begun! Crush the rumors. Now, Shuqin sees online that the Ethereum upgrade is rumored to be delayed until June? There are even some small media reports about it. So what are the facts? Everyone, take a look at the image:

According to the official blog of the Ethereum Foundation, the ETH Prague upgrade will take place on May 7 at 10:05 AM (Hong Kong time 6:05 PM)! So the Ethereum upgrade has not been delayed; many people have made incorrect investment decisions due to a lack of appropriate information sources, resulting in an information gap.

Of course, it is normal for Ethereum to pull back a bit after such a rise; I think a pullback is actually a good buying opportunity. When we get close to the upgrade, we can look for a higher point to sell, and the odds are still quite good.

If you are looking for a 100% guaranteed way to make money, it does not exist in the crypto world; you can put it in the bank, where the profit is 3% per year. However, that said, is putting money in the bank really 100% risk-free? So all investments carry a certain level of risk, proportional to the return, and it depends on how much risk exposure you are willing to accept.

How to make big money with the recent market trends? Sui skyrocketed by 30%, Neiro, Pepe, and various altcoins are taking off together. The altcoin season we mentioned last week has arrived, and we are focusing on Pepe.

However, you must understand the logic of making money during altcoin season. Its foundation is that Bitcoin breaks through previous highs, and then smaller coins start to catch up. This is the inherent logic. When Bitcoin had not broken through 88,500 (0.382), speculative funds were afraid to enter the market. But once it broke through, all the smaller coins started to catch up.

Now, Bitcoin has reached the golden ratio level of 95,000 at 0.618, and is facing resistance, so the catch-up of altcoins has also come to a halt, with only Pepe breaking through the neckline at 0.093, showing potential to reach around 0.103.

I have a 100% money-making tip: wait for Bitcoin to break upwards, and then we can make a move on the catch-up of altcoins because the significant catch-up of altcoins often lags by 1-2 days. This is the golden opportunity to make money, with very low risk for high profit. We did this with Pepe when Bitcoin broke through previously, and I hope it eventually reaches 0.103.

So now I am waiting for Bitcoin to show a significant increase from the current price, such as approaching 100,000. At that time, we can once again go all in on dog coins like Pepe and Sol, and enjoy another wave of 10-20% gains. Don't forget to pay attention to Benqin.

Therefore, at this moment, we just need to patiently watch Bitcoin's performance. There's no need to gamble on ups and downs, as it's very easy to lose money. If BTC goes up, we can catch up with smaller coins. If BTC has a major correction, then we can buy various coins at a lower price. How wonderful is that?

We should be like hunters, patiently waiting for the next wave of major upward trends or significant corrections before making our move!