The week of June 9–15, 2025 promises to be eventful, impacting the crypto market, gold, and global markets. Below is an analysis of key events, their significance, and potential impacts.

1. Bitcoin Volatility Index (BVOL24H): breakdown of the minimum 🪙

• What happened? The Bitcoin Volatility Index (BVOL24H, BitMEX) reached a local minimum. Historically, this signals a sharp increase in volatility over the next week (60–70% probability).

• Significance:

◦ Low BVOL24H often precedes strong movements in $BTC (typically ±5–10% in a week).

◦ As of 09.06.2025, $BTC is trading at $105,428 (CoinMarketCap), having increased by 0.4% over the day.

• Market Impact:

◦ Traders should be prepared for sharp fluctuations. Potential targets: $110,000 (bullish scenario) or $99,200–98,200 (bearish scenario).

◦ Altcoins ($ETH $2,631, $SOL $182) correlate with $BTC, so their movement depends on the market leader.

• Recommendation: Avoid leveraged futures trades without clear signals. Entry zones for long: $99,200–98,200; for short — a breakdown below $108,000.

Monday, June 9: US-China trade negotiations in London 🇺🇸🇨🇳

• Context: The second round of negotiations between the US and China in London will focus on export controls, particularly the supply of rare earth metals (REE) from China to the US.

• Expectations:

◦ The US aims to restore REE supply by offering to ease export controls on AI chips.

◦ Success in negotiations may lead to trade deals with Japan, South Korea, and Canada (discussed at the G7 summit).

• Market Impact:

◦ Crypto: Positive news will boost risk appetite. $BTC could reach $108,000–110,000, $ETH — $2,800, $SOL — $200. An altseason is possible if $BTC.D (62.15%) drops to 55%.

◦ Gold: De-escalation of the trade war will reduce demand for 'safe assets'. Gold ($2,650/ounce) may retract to $2,500–2,400 — a zone for entry.

◦ Stocks: S&P 500 (+0.5% for the week) and Nasdaq may add 1–2% on news of deals.

• Risks: If negotiations fail, $BTC may fall to $99,200, and gold may spike to $2,800.

• Recommendation: Keep an eye on news from London. Long $BTC on a breakout above $108,000, but with a tight stop-loss ($106,000).

Tuesday, June 10: A calm day 🕒

• Events: Absence of significant macro data or events.

• Market Impact:

◦ $BTC may consolidate in the range of $104,000–106,000 if there are no news from US-China negotiations.

◦ Altcoins will remain weak until $BTC.D decreases.

• Recommendation: Avoid impulsive trades. Analyze Monday's outcomes to assess sentiment.

Wednesday–Thursday, June 11–12: US inflation data (CPI and PPI) 📊

• Events:

◦ June 11, 8:30 AM ET: Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. Forecast: annual inflation 2.5% (up from 2.3%), core (Core CPI) 2.9% (up from 2.8%).

◦ June 12: Producer Price Index (PPI). An increase of 0.3% month-over-month is expected.

• Significance:

◦ Inflation is a key factor for the Fed's policy. The market expects that the rate (4.75–5%) will remain unchanged at the meeting on June 18 (probability 97.4%, CME FedWatch).

◦ If CPI ≤2.5% and Core CPI ≤2.9%, markets will perceive this as a 'soft' signal that supports risk appetite.

◦ If CPI >2.5% or Core CPI >3%, fears of stagflation will intensify, triggering an outflow from risk assets.

• Market Impact:

◦ Bullish scenario (CPI ≤2.5%): $BTC to $110,000, $ETH to $2,800, $SOL to $200. S&P 500 and Nasdaq may add 1–1.5%. Gold may decline to $2,500.

◦ Bearish scenario (CPI >2.5%): $BTC to $99,200–98,200, $ETH to $2,400, $SOL to $170. Gold will spike to $2,700–2,800.

◦ Altcoins: The weakness of TOTAL3 (~$800 billion) may intensify with rising inflation, but soft data will support the altseason.

• Risks: Volatility will increase due to BVOL24H (see above). PPI data may intensify the reaction if they show pressure on producers due to tariffs.

• Recommendation: Wait for reports, avoid trades until June 11. Long $BTC at $99,200 on bad data, short on a breakdown below $108,000 with inflation >2.5%.

Friday, June 13: A calm day 🕒

• Events: Absence of significant macro data.

• Market Impact: The market will consolidate after inflation data. $BTC may hold in the range of $104,000–108,000 if there are no news.

• Recommendation: Analyze the reaction to CPI/PPI. Prepare for Saturday's events.

Saturday, June 14: Trump military parade and rumors of a meeting with Musk 🎉

• Events: Trump will hold a military parade in Washington in honor of his birthday. There are rumors of a possible 'reconciliation' meeting with Elon Musk on the sidelines of the parade.

• Context:

◦ The dispute between Trump and Musk (over tariffs and impact on Tesla) has heightened market volatility. Tesla's shares fell by 14% after Musk's recession comments.

◦ Reconciliation may calm investors, supporting tech sector stocks and crypto.

• Market Impact:

◦ Crypto: Positive news of reconciliation will push $BTC to $108,000–110,000, $ETH to $2,800, $SOL to $200.

◦ Stocks: Tesla may bounce by 5–10%, Nasdaq may add 1%.

◦ Gold: Will remain neutral unless there are geopolitical escalations.

• Risks: If the meeting does not take place or ends in conflict, $BTC may retract to $102,000, and Tesla may lose another 5–7%.

• Recommendation: Keep an eye on news on Saturday. Long $BTC on confirmation of reconciliation, but with a tight stop-loss.

My thoughts 💭

The week will be volatile due to low BVOL24H and key macro data. US-China trade negotiations and inflation data will determine market direction. A positive scenario (successful deals, CPI ≤2.5%) will support $BTC to $110,000, $ETH to $2,800, $SOL to $200, and may trigger an altseason. However, rising inflation (>2.5%) or a failed negotiation will push $BTC down to $99,200–98,200. Gold is approaching the entry zone ($2,500–2,400) amid de-escalation of the trade war. High risks for futures now — better to wait for clear signals (liquidity zones or level breakouts). Trump and Musk's reconciliation could be a 'black swan' for growth.

Conclusion 📝

The week of June 9–15 is a time for patience and attentiveness. Volatility in $BTC will increase, and key events (negotiations, CPI/PPI, Trump parade) will determine the trend. Don't rush into futures: wait for liquidity zones ($BTC $99,200, $ETH $2,400) or confirmation of growth ($BTC >$108,000). Gold is approaching the entry point ($2,500), while the altseason depends on $BTC.D. Maintain risk management and filter out FOMO — the market will reward the patient! #CryptoAnalysis #Inflation #TradeWar