I became interested in the topic because in the States, people are so pessimistic about the economy that it’s breaking 40-year records – even the crises of 1980, 2008, and 2020 are taking a break! Here’s what I dug up, and let’s figure out whether things are really that bad or if we can still steer clear.

What I found out:

➡️ People in the States are in agony. Consumers are so skeptical about the bright future of the economy that it’s already a meme. And this isn’t just whining – such sentiments can really crash the economy. Why? Because it acts like a self-fulfilling prophecy: companies see that everyone is in a panic and start to slow down – investing less, cutting hiring, and even laying off staff. People, in turn, tighten their belts and spend less. And boom – even if a recession wasn’t planned, it can hit just because everyone is afraid of it.

➡️ But there is another side. This whole pessimism has already seeped into asset prices. That is, the market has already digested the worst scenarios, which reduces the chance of a wild crash. If people were all hyped up, thinking everything was okay, and then there were high rates plus Trump with his tariffs – then it would definitely hit hard. But now, everyone is already aware that there could be a crash, and that makes the situation less toxic.

➡️ The Fed is in the game. The Fed sees all this depression and will likely lower rates faster to prop up the economy. If a recession officially occurs, I don’t think it will be as chaotic as in March 2020. The landing will be softer. And when people start to gradually climb out of this pessimistic swamp, low-cap stocks and various altcoins could just soar to the heavens.

➡️ Powell is on the stage. Today and tomorrow at 5:00 PM our time, Fed Chair Jerome Powell will be chatting before the Congressional Banking Committee. If he hints at a rate cut in the summer (like his colleague Bowman did yesterday), markets may catch a positive wave. But if he starts pushing a hawkish line – like ‘inflation is still raging, no cuts, hang on’ – then we could catch a local slap. Although, honestly, his speeches are usually as boring as a plotless series, but volatility could happen, so keep your eyes open.

My analysis:

1 Why is everyone so sour?
This pessimism is not just for show. Inflation is pressing, rates are high, and Trump with his tariffs hasn’t really ramped up yet. But I think this is more of a psychological issue. People have read the news and already see themselves in line for soup. The problem is that this vibe can really drag the economy into a recession. It’s like when you’re afraid of falling off a bike, and because of that, you definitely fall.

2 But not everything is that bad.
The fact that everyone is already preparing for the worst is, paradoxically, a plus. The market has already priced in all this trash, and unless there’s some mega-surprise, I don’t expect a crash like in 2008. For us in Ukraine, this is important because if the States sneeze, we could catch a cold from exports and markets.

3 What about Powell?
His speech is like playing roulette. If he gives hope for a rate cut, markets may go up, especially small stocks and crypto. But if he starts loading up on inflation and ‘hang in there, folks’, we could catch a dip. I wouldn’t open new positions before his ramblings – too much randomness.

4 What will happen next?
If pessimism is really at its peak, it’s a signal that a rebound may soon begin. As soon as people relax a bit, low-cap stocks and altcoins may heat up. For Ukraine, it's a chance for investors, but one must be careful – our markets are dependent on global vibes.

5 My advice:

• To traders: Wait for what Powell says and don’t get into new deals until the market calms down. Volatility could be wild.

• For Ukraine: We need to keep an eye on the States because their recession may hit our exports. It’s time for the government to think about supporting businesses and finding new markets to avoid dependence on one Uncle Sam.

My summary:
The situation in the States is like on a roller coaster: scary, but not deadly. The pessimism of the people may weaken the economy, but the market has already partially digested this negativity. Powell can either throw more fuel on the fire or pour calming balm. I would bet on a soft landing rather than a crash. For us in Ukraine, this is a reminder: keep your finger on the pulse of global markets and prepare for any outcome.