Recent news about Amazon, Walmart, and major banks' plans to launch their own stablecoins, as well as SEC approval for Trump Media to create a Bitcoin reserve, confirm: the crypto market is approaching a new growth cycle. Here’s a detailed analysis and my thoughts on how this will affect the market and whether to expect an alt season.
Key news
1 Amazon and Walmart plan their own stablecoins 🛒
◦ Fact: According to The Wall Street Journal, Amazon ($2.3 trillion capitalization) and Walmart ($750 billion) are exploring the issuance of dollar stablecoins for e-commerce payments. This will reduce Visa/Mastercard fees (1.5–3%) and speed up transactions (instant settlement instead of 2–3 days).
◦ Value:
▪ Amazon processes $638 billion in annual revenue, Walmart — $100 billion in e-commerce. Even 1% savings on fees = billions of dollars.
▪ Stablecoins could become 'digital chips' for customers, simplifying the purchase of crypto ($BTC, $ETH) during euphoria.
▪ Potential blow to banks: reduced deposits may shrink lending, impacting the economy.
◦ Dependence on regulation: The final decision depends on the passing of the GENIUS Act, which establishes rules for stablecoins (Senate vote on 11.06.2025).
2 Banks (JPMorgan, Citi, Bank of America) are preparing a joint stablecoin 🏦
◦ Fact: JPMorgan, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo are negotiating to create a joint stablecoin through Zelle networks (Early Warning Services) and The Clearing House. The project depends on the GENIUS Act.
◦ Value:
▪ Banks want to compete with Tether ($USDT, 60% of the market) and Circle ($USDC, 26%). Total capitalization of stablecoins is $251 billion (DeFiLlama).
▪ JPMorgan already has JPM Coin, Wells Fargo is testing Digital Cash. A joint stablecoin could become a 'digital dollar' for interbank and customer transactions.
▪ Regulation through the GENIUS Act (100% collateralized by T-bills, monthly audits) will add trust for institutions.
◦ Context: Banks are responding to the threat from stablecoins, which reduce their control over payment flows. For example, stablecoin transactions in 2024 reached $28 trillion, exceeding Visa+Mastercard.
3 Trump Media creates a Bitcoin reserve 🇺🇸
◦ Fact: Trump Media (linked to Donald Trump) received SEC approval to form a strategic Bitcoin reserve, similar to MicroStrategy ($100 billion capitalization, 252k BTC).
◦ Value:
▪ This is a signal of 'all in' from Trump in the crypto industry. His World Liberty Financial has already launched a stablecoin USD1 (0.87% of the market, $2.1 billion).
▪ The Bitcoin reserve could spur corporate accumulation of $BTC, as in 2021 (Tesla, Square). According to Glassnode, companies hold 3.5% of the BTC supply (~735k BTC).
▪ Political influence: Trump promotes the U.S. as a 'Bitcoin superpower,' and the GENIUS Act supports his vision of dollar hegemony through stablecoins.
◦ Risks: Democrats criticize the GENIUS Act due to Trump's conflict of interest (USD1, $TRUMP meme coin). Amendments may complicate its passage.
4 GENIUS Act: the key to mass adoption 📜
◦ Status: The U.S. Senate voted 68–30 to advance the GENIUS Act (11.06.2025). The law regulates stablecoins: 100% collateralization, AML/KYC, Fed oversight for issuers with >$10 billion.
◦ Impact:
▪ The law could attract $1–2 trillion in stablecoins by 2027, simplifying integration for Amazon, Walmart, and banks.
▪ Institutions (JPMorgan, BlackRock) will more actively enter crypto, buying $BTC and $ETH.
▪ Potential growth in TVL in DeFi ($52 billion on L2) and RWA ($10 trillion by 2030).
Why does this lead to euphoria?
• Mass adoption: Amazon and Walmart reach 500 million customers. Their stablecoins will become 'gateways' into crypto, like PayPal did in 2021 (pushed $BTC to $69k).
• Institutional capital: Banks and corporations (JPMorgan, MicroStrategy, Trump Media) are accumulating $BTC and launching stablecoins, increasing trust.
• Technical setup:
◦ $BTC ($105,428) in a consolidation zone before $110,000. Correction to $99,200 (70% probability) will gather liquidity before growth.
◦ $BTC.D (62.15%) signals weakness in alts, but a drop to 55% will trigger the alt season ($ETH up to $3,500, $SOL down to $250).
◦ TOTAL3 (~$800 billion) could grow to $1.5 trillion in Q4 2025.
• Regulation: The GENIUS Act and the SEC's departure from 'regulation by enforcement' (statement by Paul Atkins) create a transparent environment.
When to expect the alt season?
• Timing:
◦ The alt season will begin when $BTC.D falls to 55–50% (likely Q4 2025 – Q1 2026). Historically, alt seasons last 2–4 months (2021: $ETH +300%, SOL+1000%).
◦ Triggers: passing of the GENIUS Act, growth of TVL in DeFi ($100 billion+), launch of Amazon/Walmart stablecoins.
• Duration:
◦ According to cyclicality (2017, 2021), the alt season may last up to 6 months if $BTC stabilizes at $150k–200k.
◦ Risk: macro (CPI >2.5% on 11.06, recession) or geopolitics (Iran–Israel) may shorten the cycle to 1–2 months.
• Top alts to monitor:
◦ $ETH ($2,631): 50% DeFi on Ethereum, benefiting from RWA and L2 (Arbitrum, Base). Target: $6,000.
◦ $SOL ($182): Leader in NFTs and meme coins. Target: $400.
◦ $ARB ($0.335): Leader in L2 with $989 million in revenue. Target: $0.89.
My thoughts
News about Amazon, Walmart, banks, and Trump Media — this is a 'quiet revolution' that the market underestimates due to noise (Iran, CPI). Stablecoins will become a bridge between fiat and crypto, attracting trillions of dollars. $BTC avoids correction to $95k if the GENIUS Act is passed, and the alt season is inevitable at $BTC.D <55%. But don’t FOMO: wait for liquidity zones ($BTC $99,200, $ETH $2,400) and keep risk at 1–2%. Whales are already accumulating — don’t become their liquidity! #CryptoEuphoria
Conclusion
Amazon, Walmart, banks, and Trump Media are preparing the market for mass adoption of crypto. Stablecoins will become 'new money,' and Bitcoin reserves will boost $BTC. The alt season is inevitable, but wait for signals ($BTC.D <55%, $BTC ~$99,200). Ignore the noise (news, panic) and trade by plan. This is the last chance to enter before euphoria — don’t miss it! 😎 #Stablecoins #Altseason #CryptoBoom
