(The century confrontation between contract gamblers and the prudent: Who is rational, and who is insane?)

🌪️ The 'illusion of sudden wealth' for contract gamblers: A defeat in the battle of mathematics and human nature.

You ask, 'Are people who trade contracts out of their minds?' — From the perspectives of probability and behavioral finance, indeed they are.

1. The mathematically inevitable losing situation.

Win rate trap: Assume you have a win rate of 66% on each trade (far exceeding the average person's level), but if you wager 100% of your principal each time, the probability of bankruptcy in the long run is as high as 100%. This is the truth revealed by the Kelly formula: Over-leverage = Chronic suicide.

Fee erosion: In high-frequency contract trading, fees can consume 30%-50% of your principal, akin to 'self-harming before the battle even starts'.

2. The deadly poison in human nature.

Survivorship bias: The liquidation posts you see are merely the failures, while the myths of 'getting rich overnight' are infinitely exaggerated — just like casinos only promote those who hit the jackpot, but do not mention that 99% of gamblers lose everything.

Dopamine hijacking: The immediate feedback mechanism of contracts (price fluctuations in seconds) activates the brain's reward circuit, making it more addictive than drugs. You think you are investing, but in reality, you are playing 'Russian roulette'.

🛡️ The prudent's 'survival wisdom': Slow is fast, stability leads to victory.

The prudent faction you represent has precisely grasped the underlying logic of wealth accumulation.

1. The compound interest effect: An underestimated nuclear weapon.

Annualized 15% return, quadrupling the principal in 10 years.

Annualized 20% return, sextupling the principal in 10 years.

Key: Exchange time for space, refuse the temptation of 'getting rich overnight'.

2. Risk control: Only those who survive are winners.

No single trade should lose more than 2% of the principal.

Always keep enough for 3 months of living expenses in total positions.

Truth: The market is not short of opportunities, but lacks those who can survive until the opportunities arise.