In the violent fluctuations of digital currencies, the true art of trading lies in transforming the theoretical framework into muscle memory. When the K-line breathing becomes instinctive, and when the fluctuation of profit and loss no longer disturbs the mind, traders have entered the ultimate battlefield of building a sustainable profit system. The following 6 practical rules that combine the essence of Dow and the characteristics of the currency circle will reveal the essential laws of trend trading for you:
■ Holographic Price Law: K-line is the truth
7×24 hours global game creates a perfect price melting pot
Sudden policies/big whale movements/emotional waves are all priced in real time
Iron rule of trading: always respect price > guess the news
■ 3D Trend Anatomy
1) Tidal cycle (annual level)
The bull-bear rhythm centered on the Bitcoin halving cycle
Macro narrative game of institutional funds rebalancing
2) Wave band (weekly level)
The golden battlefield of 30%-60% Fibonacci retracement
The key window for smart money to make reverse layout
3) Noise ripple (hour level)
The Shura Field of High-Frequency Algorithms
Retail investor meat grinder: 97% meaningless fluctuations
■ The three-act play of the main players
▷ Undercurrent period (bearish bottoming out)
On-chain data warning: long-term holders accumulate chips
Volume Code: Whale Buying Orders in Continuous Volume
▷ Consensus period (trend establishment)
Double breakthrough: Weekly EMA21 + previous high resistance
Healthy volume and price: step-by-step volume increase
▷ Mania (top structure)
FOMO indicator: Google Trends breaks previous highs + Altcoins are in chaos
Death signal: USDT premium turns negative + CVD continues to diverge
■ Cross-market validation matrix
Bitcoin and Nasdaq 100 90-day correlation > 0.7, beware
Ethereum’s breakthrough must be accompanied by a simultaneous increase in the total amount of DeFi locked
Abnormal movement of platform coins is often a precursor to a change in the market
■ Decoding of volume game
/ Spot battlefield /
Breaking through the key position requires more than 2 times the average volume verification
A rebound without volume will inevitably be a retracement (especially during the Asian session)
/ Contract Battlefield /
When the increase in holdings > the price increase = the critical point of the long-short battle
Beware of short squeeze risk when funding rate is > 0.1%
■ Trend Reversal Triple Door
① On-chain alarm (1-3 months in advance)
Exchange net inflow surges + miners' holdings plummet
② Technical resonance (trend destruction)
Weekly EMA144 lost + TD9 sequence completed
The Volatility Index (BVOL) breaks through the upper Bollinger Band
③ Extreme emotions (final confirmation)
Fear and Greed Index 95
Liquidation heat map shows trillion-level liquidity black hole
【Advanced Application Guide】
The ultimate form of Dow Theory in the cryptocurrency world is the “timing filter”:
Only participate in products with upward monthly trend
Open a position at the 4H Fibonacci 38.2% level
If the weekly EMA21 is broken, the stop loss will be activated immediately
When the USDT market value falls below 42%, start trend tracking and stop profit$XRP $BTC #加密市场回调 #币安Alpha上新
