Advisor Discusses Hot Topics:
Brothers, this week, let's not rush to criticize each other's long and short positions; first, let's see the CPI and PPI on Wednesday and Thursday. If the forecast is higher than the previous value, it means inflation is not going down, and don't expect interest rate cuts too soon; market sentiment might take a direct hit. Those holding positions should pay attention to avoid being liquidated on the spot.
Returning directly to the market, the weekend's rebound finally reached a critical position—the 4-hour middle track and the left supply zone—but it was clearly struggling, failing to break the previous high.
This means don’t be too optimistic about longs; we are back in the oscillation range of 100K~107K, and currently at a high, the short-term is biased towards bearish. The rebound above 103K comes with a decline in spot premiums, indicating that the bears have exited while contract bulls are holding on.
From the structural perspective of this rebound, both the high and low points are lower, a standard rebound decay type. In plain language, it means the bulls have lost control of the situation, and the structure is not giving you any favors.
First, we must acknowledge that last week's pullback was actually for the market to deleverage. Too many people were long, and the price couldn't rise at all. After this wave of liquidation, the market can finally take a breath; if it can break through 107K and 108K, it may welcome a new wave of market activity; otherwise, it will still have to drag on.
As for friends still resisting the bears? As long as the price stays below the middle track, the chance of testing 103K still exists. However, the advisor subjectively believes that the possibility of Bitcoin oscillating above 100K is greater, and it is unlikely to plunge directly.
Moreover, don't just focus on the current liquidity; many people are still holding positions they opened a month ago. Last week's low accurately swept away the most concentrated long liquidation area, with an error of no more than 100 dollars. I truly admire the exchange's precision.
Now, let’s discuss the advisor's personal forecast for this week, which summarizes as first oscillation, then liquidation. Key long liquidation levels: 96500, 92000. Key short liquidation levels: 108000, 114700.
I believe many friends see this price and surely feel it’s outrageous, right? Just wait and see two weeks later; let’s see who laughs last.
Advisor Looks at the Trend:
Resistance Level Reference:
Second Resistance Level: 106800
First Resistance Level: 105900
Support Level Reference:
Second Support Level: 105000
First Support Level: 104000
Today's Suggestions:
Currently, the probability of testing the first resistance level above is relatively high. As long as the 200-day moving average can hold, after stabilizing below, it will also test the pressure of the 120-day moving average. Instead of focusing on 106.8K, it’s better to first see if 105.9K can be effectively broken while observing whether the lower support is stable.
In the short term, 105K and the 200-day moving average can be considered short-term support; if it stabilizes, it can align with a rebound trading strategy. If it breaks below the critical support of 104.8–105K, it may trigger short-term selling pressure, necessitating caution against rapid downward risks.
Today's trading is mainly based on a rebound strategy, focusing on the movement of the 200-day moving average, taking opportunities to accumulate long positions when the price retraces to the right level. Considering the macro environment is still slightly bearish, do not expect a significant rebound; reasonably set upper targets and take profits in batches while strictly controlling positions and risks.
6.9 Advisor's Band Strategy:
Long Entry Reference: Enter long in batches in the 104000-105000 range; target: 1059000-106800
Short Entry Reference: Enter short in batches in the 105900-106800 range; target: 105000-104000
If you genuinely want to learn something from a blogger, you need to follow them consistently, rather than jumping to conclusions after watching a few market movements. This market is filled with performers; screenshots of long positions today, summaries of short positions tomorrow, making it seem like they are 'grabbing the top and bottom every time,' but in reality, it's all after the fact. A truly worthy blogger's trading logic must be consistent and coherent over time and withstand scrutiny, not just reacting to market movements. Don't be misled by exaggerated data and fragmented screenshots; long-term observation and deep understanding are required to distinguish who is a thinker and who is a dreamer!
