Fundamental dynamics
1. Nasdaq has submitted an application to the U.S. SEC to include XRP, SOL, ADA, and XLM in the cryptocurrency index. This action releases a stronger signal of legalization and indirectly promotes the compliance process of "non-Bitcoin and Ethereum" cryptocurrencies, constituting a medium-term benefit. As the compliance path becomes increasingly clear, it is expected to attract conservative funds such as pensions and index funds to enter the market. At the same time, the weight restoration of established mainstream altcoins is expected to open up, potentially further driving the rotation of secondary cryptocurrencies.
2. Market data shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged in June is as high as 99.9%.
Technical dynamics:
BTC: The weekly chart shows a long lower shadow candlestick last week, breaking the weekly 7-day moving average. This week, the focus is on the support at the lower 94 position. The daily level has shown a downward trend over the past half month, with the bottom of the first step at around 107, currently near the top position of the second step. After the rebound in the past three days, it has begun to fall again upon reaching the recent peak. If today's closing line can form a solid bearish line and break below the 105 level, a new round of downward movement will open up on the short-term technical front. The 4-hour chart last week showed a typical V-shaped double top pattern, and it is currently forming two consecutive large bearish lines, indicating that the market still has room to decline. For today's operations, pay close attention to the pressure at the 106-107 position above and the support at the 104-103 position below.
ETH technical trend analysis
Weekly level shows that ETH has closed with long upper shadow candlesticks for four consecutive weeks, and this week needs to focus on the support strength of the weekly 7-day moving average (2400 level). On the daily level, the price has maintained a high-level box oscillation for nearly a month, with the upper limit at 2680 and lower support at 2480. The significant drop on June 6 broke through all moving average systems (especially the critical support of the 30-day moving average), and after a slight rebound and correction of the upper moving average in the past two days, today the price has started to decline again. If a solid bearish line or large bearish line is formed today and effectively breaks below 2480, the short-term target can be seen at around 2280.
The 4-hour cycle shows that ETH has continuously closed two large bearish lines, breaking the rebound channel, with bearish strength dominating. For intraday operations, it is recommended to focus on the pressure zone of 2510-2540 above, while the support level is concentrated in the 2460-2420 area below.
Strategy analysis for the altcoin market
Currently, the overall altcoin market lacks clear trending opportunities. It is recommended to continue maintaining a cash position and wait for a defined entry opportunity. From a technical pattern analysis perspective, the typical bottom accumulation characteristics of altcoins usually manifest as: after a sharp drop in volume, entering a bottom consolidation phase, where clear key support levels will form. It is important to focus on the non-volume oscillation state appearing in the 4-hour level trend, as well as the false breakout signals of volume in smaller cycles — meaning the price has not created a new low, but the volume has shrunk to a phase low in advance, such patterns often have short-term bottom-buying value.
The above strategy corresponds to periodic market opportunities, usually manifested as a downward space compressed to within 10%, while the upward space can expand to 30%-50% or even higher. In a market environment with strong continuity, certain strong cryptocurrencies in popular sectors are more likely to achieve double-level price growth. Investors need to remain patient and focus on target cryptocurrencies that align with bottom accumulation characteristics, waiting for key technical signals to confirm before strategically positioning.
Contract: For intraday contract trading, refer to the analysis points of the above Bitcoin and altcoins for trading. Currently, the market is mainly focused on short-term transactions.
The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, exercise caution when entering the market, personal opinion, not a suggestion, for sharing only
