Why has USDT been falling recently? Friends who have been paying attention should have noticed that USDT has dropped from around 7.35 at the beginning of the year to the current 7.18!! If you have 10 million USDT in your account, you have lost 1.7 million RMB!! The reasons for the decline in the USDT/RMB exchange rate are as follows: 1. The weakening of the dollar has dragged down USDT pricing, with the dollar index plummeting nearly 9% this year. Since 2025, the dollar index has cumulatively fallen by 8.34%, marking its worst performance at the beginning of the year. The main reason is that Trump's tariff policy has triggered global trade uncertainty, combined with a slowdown in the US economy (a 1.8% quarter-on-quarter contraction in GDP), weakening the dollar's safe-haven attribute. 2. Stablecoins are deeply tied to dollar credibility. USDT is pegged 1:1 to the dollar, and its value relies on the dollar's credit backing. However, the dollar has been overvalued by about 15% in the long term (according to Goldman Sachs models), and global central banks are reducing their dollar holdings and increasing gold reserves (such as China promoting diversification of foreign exchange reserves), indirectly weakening the underlying credit support for USDT! 3. The pressure for the yuan to depreciate is increasing, and the widening of the interest rate differential between China and the US drives capital outflow. Currently, the yield on US 10-year treasuries is about 4.2%, while the yield on Chinese government bonds is less than 2%, with an interest rate spread exceeding 2.2%. Investors tend to exchange yuan for dollars to purchase US treasuries, capturing risk-free interest rate spreads. If we add an annual depreciation expectation for the yuan (such as 1%), the actual yield could reach 3.2%, further exacerbating capital outflow and selling pressure on the yuan. The central parity rate and offshore rate have weakened simultaneously, with the offshore yuan exchange rate (CNH) having dropped to 7.251, and the central parity rate (official guide rate) down to 7.193, both depreciating in sync and approaching historical lows (previous highs were 7.375 and 7.256 respectively). This rare synchronization indicates a weakening of central bank intervention, leading to a consistent market expectation of yuan depreciation. The pressure for yuan depreciation (capital outflow + policy constraints) → Weakening of the dollar (economic slowdown + tariff uncertainty) → Erosion of USDT's credibility (weakening dollar backing + regulatory squeeze) → Shift in market preference (diverting demand to US treasuries/gold) → Continuous decline of USDT/RMB. If the yuan's depreciation breaks through 7.3 or the EU clearly restricts USDT, the exchange rate may come under further pressure; in the long term, attention should be paid to the narrowing interest rate differential between China and the US, signals of dollar stabilization, and the implementation of stablecoin regulations.