Federal Reserve's Harker: Amid uncertainty, there remains a possibility of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve later this year.
Federal Reserve's Musalem: The possibility of a sustained inflation outbreak due to the trade war is 50%. Tariffs may drive up inflation within one or two quarters.
According to CME's 'FedWatch': The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in June is 99.9%, and the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 0.1%. The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in July is 83.4%, and the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut is 16.5%.