Sister Bei went to Guangdong for a week without trading, waiting for the B wave, and as a result, the altcoin rebound was weak, causing her account to continue shrinking by 7.5%, dropping from 2.3 million to 2.13 million. It's truly hard to make money in spot trading right now; currently, the account is still showing a floating profit of 505,000, with a yield of 31%. The overall market is bearish, currently in a descending channel, with a high probability of forming an ABC wave decline. Sister Bei plans to reduce positions by 50%. However, there are two major positive factors in the news next week that need close attention. Whether they can reverse the downward trend depends on whether the 'understanding king' will perform well. The bulls should not give up!
Let's first look at the technical analysis. The two kings finally had a volume increase and a bottom rebound the day before yesterday. The rebound of Bitcoin in the past two days has been quite strong, breaking through the upper band of the daily descending channel and also the neckline of the head and shoulders pattern on the daily chart, which is the B wave rebound that Sister Bei mentioned last week, bringing a glimmer of hope to the bulls! Unfortunately, the altcoins are not cooperating, declining instead of rising, and the rebound strength is very weak. It seems the market makers are collectively on vacation, not pushing the price at all! This is also the reason why Sister Bei's plan to reduce positions has been waiting. The overall strategy remains to reduce positions on rallies.
So whether it can break through and stabilize at 107,000 next week is key. If it cannot stabilize, the downward trend remains unchanged, the B wave rebound ends, and the C wave decline will continue. The magnitude of the C wave decline will be larger, and the head and shoulders pattern on the daily chart will form again! If it does not break 100,000, it will evolve into a range of oscillation from 100,000 to 112,000, and we can trade within that range. If it breaks 100,000, we must clear positions to avoid risks. Where will it fall to? Where is the appropriate place to enter the market in batches? Sister Bei believes that 97,500 and 93,000 are relatively ideal entry positions, which are the two platform areas from previous consolidation, and also correspond to the Fibonacci levels of 0.618 and 0.5. Here we can continue to boldly enter and build positions.
With bearish technical indicators, where are the variables in the market? Two major positive factors next week will have a decisive impact on the trend! The first is that Trump will announce the next Federal Reserve chairman candidate and hopes the Fed will directly cut interest rates by 100 basis points. The popular candidate for the next chairman is likely to be Waller, the Fed's second-in-command, who has firmly aligned with the 'understanding king' and supports dovish rate cuts! The significant rise in the US stock market on Friday was a market reaction to this positive news. If the 'understanding king' can announce it next week, the market bulls will face a counterattack!
The second positive factor is the stablecoin bill. This week, Circl's IPO performance was eye-catching, attracting wild capital interest! In the short term, it may seem like a bloodsucking negative, but it actually creates ripples, comparable to a financial nuclear bomb. One might think that a coin-issuing company going public is nothing, but if you think from a different angle, it becomes significant: a public company can issue coins!!! If you ponder this, you should feel the intricacies and power within; this has a profound impact on restructuring the financial industry! Asia and Europe must keep up with stablecoin legislation, or they will be eliminated by the new rules! If this bill passes the House of Representatives next week, it will soon be signed by the 'understanding king', so whether this bill passes or not will also become a watershed event for bulls and bears next week!
After analyzing both bullish and bearish factors, in summary, we should act according to the trend. If the current downward trend remains unchanged, we should reduce positions on rallies. Once news triggers a reversal and changes the trend, we will switch to a bullish view! Sister Bei plans to operate this way: Ethereum is relatively strong due to continuous net inflow from ETFs affecting its price, so the position reduction for PEPE mainly targets the positions that are chasing highs later. She plans to take profits and reduce positions by 50% near 1300. SOL and ETH are showing a back-and-forth pattern, plus the PUMPFUN token is about to issue coins again, so SOL and RAY are relatively weak recently, and the reduction in positions will be more significant, over 50%. The mid and upper bands of the daily Bollinger Bands are good positions for reducing positions in batches.
That's all for this week's review. Sister Bei's weekly review post is the most systematic summary, containing a lot of useful information. I hope the fans who like it can like and share more!
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