Three major risk events: The 'Sword of Damocles' hanging over Bitcoin
First, the uncertainty of U.S. monetary policy remains the biggest variable in the cryptocurrency market. The Federal Reserve's ongoing focus on inflation makes the future of interest rate hikes uncertain. Once the Federal Reserve releases hawkish signals and expectations for rate hikes heat up, market funds will quickly flow to low-risk traditional assets, putting serious outflow pressure on risk assets like Bitcoin.
Secondly, the tightening risk of cryptocurrency regulatory policies should not be underestimated. Many countries and regions around the world are gradually strengthening their regulatory measures on cryptocurrencies, from compliance in trading to tax policies. A series of regulatory measures will directly affect the liquidity and investor confidence in the cryptocurrency market. If key regions implement strict regulatory policies, the price of Bitcoin will undoubtedly suffer a heavy blow.
Finally, the deterioration of the macroeconomic environment is also threatening the Bitcoin market. Factors such as global economic slowdown and escalating geopolitical conflicts have led to rising market risk aversion. In this situation, investors are more inclined to hold traditional safe-haven assets like gold, while Bitcoin, as an emerging asset, has not yet gained widespread recognition for its safe-haven properties and may be abandoned by investors.
Bearish Divergence in Bitcoin Weekly Chart: A Warning of History Repeating
From a technical analysis perspective, a bearish divergence pattern similar to that of 2021 has appeared in the Bitcoin weekly chart. In 2021, Bitcoin's price continuously hit new highs, but technical indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) did not rise in sync, forming a bearish divergence, followed by a significant price correction for Bitcoin. Now, history seems to be repeating itself; although Bitcoin's price is fluctuating at a high level, technical indicators have begun to weaken. This bearish divergence suggests that the upward momentum of Bitcoin's price is gradually exhausting, and a reversal could happen at any time. According to technical analysis estimates, if Bitcoin's price confirms a decline, its correction may exceed 50%, targeting a price level of $64,000. This is not alarmist; in the cryptocurrency market, extreme price fluctuations are already commonplace. Once market panic spreads and a large number of investors sell off Bitcoin, the $64,000 price level is likely to become a reality. For investors, the current market environment is full of challenges and opportunities. On one hand, it is crucial to fully recognize the potential risks brought by the three major risk events and the bearish divergence in the Bitcoin weekly chart, to properly allocate assets and manage investment risks; on the other hand, there is no need to panic excessively. Although the volatility of the cryptocurrency market is high, it also contains enormous investment opportunities. During the market adjustment process, investors can closely monitor market dynamics, look for suitable entry timing, and prepare for the next round of trends.
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