"History does not repeat itself, but it often rhymes."

I. Introduction

As the largest crypto asset by market capitalization, Bitcoin's price volatility has always attracted significant market attention. April and October are referred to as the 'golden windows' for Bitcoin trading. Bitcoin's price movements exhibit notable monthly patterns and seasonal characteristics, such as a tendency to rise in October and November, while September shows weakness. This article delves into Bitcoin's historical monthly price performance, analyzes market logic and reasons in conjunction with the macroeconomic context, and predicts trends for the second half of 2025 to aid investment decisions.

II. Analysis of the historical monthly performance patterns of Bitcoin

Statistics from 2013 to 2024 reveal a clear monthly seasonal pattern in Bitcoin prices:

Strongest performing months: February (average increase of 13.12%, with a 43.55% increase in 2024), October (average increase of 21.89%), November (highest of the year, with a 42.95% increase in 2020).

Weakest performing months: January (average increase of 3.81%, with multiple declines), August (average increase of 1.75%), September (the 'September curse', average decline of -3.77%).

Months of significant volatility: April (average increase of 13.06%, high volatility), May ('devil's month', with sharp fluctuations), July (average increase of 7.56%, notable volatility).

Transition months: March (average increase of 12.21%), June (close to zero), December (average increase of 4.75%).

Overall seasonal characteristics are: weak at the beginning of the year, rising in spring, differentiation in summer, low in autumn, and rising in the fourth quarter. Historical patterns are significant but affected by the macro economy.

III. Analysis of the reasons for Bitcoin's monthly performance patterns

Market cycles and capital flow: The four-year halving cycle drives bull markets, with bull market peaks often occurring in the fourth quarter, leading to significant increases in October and November, while bear markets often begin at the start of the year, with weak performance in January.

Macroeconomic and traditional market seasonal effects: For example, the 'Sell in May' effect leads to weakness in May and June, and the tax season affects capital flow in March and April.

Publication of macro data and policy cycles: The Federal Reserve's interest rate meetings affect volatility in March, June, September, and December, with the US dollar index inversely related to Bitcoin prices.

Investor sentiment and market participation: Year-end holidays affect trading volume, and risk appetite increases in the fourth quarter capital allocation.

IV. Macroeconomic environment and market background in 2025

The US economic growth rate slows, inflation stabilizes, the Federal Reserve maintains high interest rates, and interest rate cut expectations are delayed.

The intensification of US-China trade frictions, global security tensions, and rising risk-averse sentiment have driven gold prices to new highs.

Risk appetite in traditional markets shifts towards structural defense, with institutional funds favoring gold and Bitcoin.

Institutional entry into the crypto market continues, with regulatory games unresolved, Bitcoin ETF assets exceeding $130 billion, and the market maturing.

V. Outlook and summary of trends from June to December 2025

June: Market oscillation, primarily wait-and-see.

July: High probability of an increase, with monthly gains reaching double digits.

August: Summer slump, with weak market conditions.

September: Beware of the 'September curse', which may lead to an adjustment of 10-15%.

October: Improved liquidity, potentially the main upward phase of the bull market.

November: The strongest month, potentially peaking at $180,000 to $200,000.

December: Performance depends on November results, with a high probability of doubling the year-end closing price.

Summary: Bitcoin is expected to rise amid twists and turns in the second half of 2025, with strong potential for growth in October to December, but caution is required regarding high volatility and black swan risks. Investors should combine historical patterns with the macro environment to manage risks effectively.

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Risk warning

The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investing carries risks; it is advised that investors implement strict risk management.