Technical Key Levels:

* Resistance Level: $106,200 (4-hour EMA200 + June 7 high)

* Support Level: $104,800 (VWAP pivot + institutional accumulation zone)

* On-chain Signal: Daily trading volume in the range of $105,000-$106,000 reaches 120,000 BTC, with whale holding cost at $104,500 forming an intraday anchor point.

Long and Short Catalysts:

* Bullish: Disclosure of stablecoin details by Deutsche Bank, spread of corporate buying frenzy

* Bearish: US Consumer Confidence Index declines more than expected, Musk event second round of fallout

Probability Distribution:

* Fluctuating Upward ($104,800-$106,200): 55% (policy vacuum period + options Gamma squeeze)

* False Breakout followed by Correction (falling below $104,800): 30% (profit-taking ahead of inflation data)

* Strong Breakout (above $106,200): 15% (institutional FOMO chasing + short squeeze wave)

Action Suggestions:

* Current price $105,500, can place limit buy order (stop loss at $104,300), target $107,000;

* If US Consumer Confidence Index < 60, reverse to short position betting on $103,500;

* Breakout above $106,200, chase long to $108,000 (must be accompanied by one-hour trading exceeding $900 million).