After a 9% correction on Thursday, XRP recovers ground and triggered technical rebound alerts. But, is this rally sustainable, or just the precursor to a larger move? Here’s the latest analysis.

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📅 Day Context

On Saturday, June 7, 2025, the global cryptocurrency market shows a slight recovery after the widespread drop on Thursday, which reduced total capitalization by 4% to $3.4 trillion. XRP is currently trading around $2.17, recovering above the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $2.08, a key level that analysts are watching as an important technical support.

In the macroeconomic landscape, the U.S. labor market reported a rise of 139,000 jobs in May, exceeding expectations of 130,000 and holding the unemployment rate steady at 4.2%. This data generates some optimism in risk assets, although the context remains uncertain due to trade tensions and court decisions on U.S. tariffs. Discussions in the Federal Reserve about potential interest rate cuts also generate expectation, as they could directly influence market confidence and the strength of the dollar.

In the realm of XRP, Ripple continues its legal battle with the SEC and has sparked investor interest due to the possibility of an XRP ETF that could be approved soon. Additionally, the community anticipates key announcements at the XRPL Developer Summit in Singapore (June 10-12), which could provide additional momentum for the asset.

With these elements at play, XRP faces a technical and fundamental convergence that could define its direction in the coming weeks.

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📈1. Detailed Technical Analysis

Key levels:

Immediate resistance: $2.30–$2.35. A daily close above $2.30 would confirm a double bottom pattern.

Next ceiling to watch: between $2.50 and $2.65; a breakout there could catapult XRP to $3.00–$3.20.

Supports: $2.08 (200-day EMA), $2.00, and $1.92.

Technical indicators:

50 and 100-day EMA converging near $2.26, creating dynamic resistance.

RSI neutral (~50), with mixed oscillators (MACD, CCI, and Stochastic) reflecting indecision.

Chart patterns: Falling wedge points to $3.20; ascending triangle projects up to $3.50.

Compressed volatility in a symmetrical triangle between $2.22–$2.28; a breakout could lead to $2.45–$2.57.

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🧩2. On-Chain and Derivatives Indicators

Open interest in XRP derivatives reaches nearly $5 billion: signs of accumulated pressure and possible rebound from short squeeze.

Positive net buying volume (CVD) in spot, reflecting buyer confidence.

Escrow activity: Ripple released 1 billion XRP in June but refunded 670 million, raising the floating supply by ~330 million.

Suspicious movements: 120M XRP left escrow and were dispersed through wallets, raising alarms about covered sales.

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🏦3. Fundamental Catalysts

Labor data in the U.S.: 139,000 jobs created in May; unemployment rate remains at 4.2%.

XRP ETF: Possible approval of the Franklin Templeton spot ETF around June 17.

Fed meeting (FOMC June 17-18): Potential rate cuts could boost risk assets like XRP.

XRPL Developer Summit (June 10-12 in Singapore): Improvements to the ledger such as AI payments and DeFi could be announced, raising utility and adoption.

Regulation: XRP included in a strategic reserve in the U.S.; favorable court ruling from July 2023 remains key to its legal status.

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⚖️4. Analyst Opinions

Optimists: Explosive projections of $25–$75 driven by ETF and network improvements.

Conservatives: Targets of $5–$7 by year-end if regulatory and adoption milestones are met.

Pessimists: Risk of falling to $1.76 if it fails to surpass $2.50.

Reddit: Mixed oscillators and possible overbought pressure.

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🚦5. Risks and Counterpoints

Covered sales from escrow could pressure the price.

High volatility due to elevated open interest without clear catalysts.

Uncertain macroeconomic context (Fed, trade tensions).

Technical weakness as long EMAs remain bearish.

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✅ Summary and Upcoming Key Signals

Bullish: Daily close above $2.30–$2.35, positive spot flows, and favorable macroeconomic catalysts.

Bearish: Drop below $2.08, sales from escrow, and adverse global context.

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💬 Conclusion

XRP is at a crucial point, driven by a technical rebound and a solid labor context in the U.S. With key events like the ETF and the XRPL Developer Summit approaching, the market could be facing a significant move in the coming weeks. However, volatility and macroeconomic uncertainty could work against it.

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❓ Will June be the month when XRP breaks upward to $2.50–$3.00, or are we facing a bull trap that sends it back to $2.00?

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