Folks, the situation I am most worried about has arrived! The number of employed people in the US is plummeting, and the unemployment rate is soaring. A potential financial crisis is quietly brewing!
A huge gap has appeared at 92,000 on CME futures. Does Bitcoin need to drop another 10%? And there’s an unexpected interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve. What exactly is happening? Let's take a look with Shuqin~
First of all, the biggest financier in the crypto world, Wall Street, has encountered problems. Employment data has continuously deteriorated, and in the latest unemployment data, the number of first-time unemployment claims unexpectedly rose by 10,000, an increase of over 5%. This is the second consecutive increase in unemployment numbers.
Then, another employment data point, the small non-farm ADP, also crashed. The expected new jobs were 110,000, but the actual new jobs were only 37,000. It's simply been halved again. The negatives caused by tariffs have started to quietly emerge, and economic indicators are raising warnings. The current false prosperity may just be an illusion; a recession or even a financial crisis is brewing.
From the K-line perspective, Bitcoin has completed its 5-wave or even 7-wave rise and is due for a correction. According to wave theory, after the main 5-wave rise, the next step is an ABC correction. The current rebound is likely a B-wave rebound, which may reach around 107,000, and then the largest C-wave decline will follow. This is a textbook-level pattern; I wonder if it will hold true.
From the perspective of CME futures, there is a gap at 92,000 for Bitcoin. Whenever there is a gap on CME, Bitcoin will eventually fill that gap, meaning the price will definitely reach that level; it's just a matter of time. Whether it's the previous gaps at 40,000, 60,000, or 80,000, the coin price ultimately went there. So everyone can keep an eye on this 92,000.
However, in the short term, Bitcoin's support around 100,000 is a previously established support level that has seen multiple declines, and it is also a significant psychological barrier. There is strong support here, so Shuqin led everyone to take a short-term long position, waiting for a rebound before shorting again at higher levels. This rebound is really quite impressive.
Returning to the previous unemployment data, if we think about it from a different perspective, in the long run, this will actually promote the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates sooner. Everyone, look at the chart:
The probability of an interest rate cut in September has started to rise rapidly, now at 55%. This could generate the incremental funds that the crypto market dreams of. So theoretically, the crypto market may decline in July and August due to the continuously rising unemployment rate and inflation data, and then start a new journey in September and October after the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates. This aligns with our previous expectations and Spoofy’s positions.
Speaking of Spoofy, he has been selling since 110,000, and now at 100,000, he continues to sell, indicating that he believes it's time to sell rather than add positions, as it's not yet time for long-term bottom fishing. His previous operations have shown that he usually waits at least a month or two after exiting before thinking about re-entering when prices hit the bottom. Therefore, long-term bottom fishing is not urgent; we should first observe the gap at 92,000. We can operate alongside the institutions. If the big whales start bottom fishing, Shuqin will notify everyone in time, so please remember to follow me.
However, there are not all bad news in the market. The leaders of China and the US completed a phone call this week, signaling a potential thaw in China-US tariffs.
However, the trade negotiations between the US and Japan/Europe have hit a stalemate. For instance, Japan's Economic Minister Akizumi has strongly demanded that the US fully reduce tariffs on Japan and has not shown any compromise. Meanwhile, Europe is also unyielding, even making Trump angry enough to propose an additional 25% tariff on the EU, which has currently been postponed until July 9.
In this month, two major events have occurred one after another. The first is that the USDC stablecoin issuer Circle was listed on Nasdaq last Thursday night, soaring nearly 200%, attracting a large amount of capital from the crypto market.
But this is not over; in the next two weeks, the Solana leader PumpFun will also conduct a pre-sale, selling 20% of the tokens at a valuation of 5 billion, which is 1 billion USD. It is expected that some institutions or retail investors will sell Bitcoin to buy it, causing a secondary capital drain from the market. The previous example is Trump’s coin issuance on January 17, which led the market directly into a bear market. I mentioned this to everyone a few days ago and repeatedly advised everyone to exit the market, not to be greedy during the tail end of the market, and to secure profits. In just a few days, Bitcoin has fallen 10% from its peak, and Pepe has nearly been halved. I hope everyone stays vigilant.
Additionally, a few days ago we discussed that ZK and ZRO will have a large token unlock in mid-June, which accounts for over 20% of their current circulating supply. This creates significant selling pressure, so we have shorted multiple times at high points, already profiting from a 20% decline. I believe we can continue to short during the ZK rebound. Shuqin updates these points in real time every day, so if you're interested, feel free to check it out.
Well, back to the main point. Musk and Trump are currently embroiled in a heated dispute. It seems that Musk is picking fights on Twitter, but the real bridge-burning person may be Trump. His tax reduction plan has eliminated electric vehicle subsidies, which will cause Tesla significant losses. Furthermore, he has drastically cut NASA's budget, which has also severely impacted Musk's SpaceX. In addition, Trump has individually raised tariffs on cars, steel, and aluminum, precisely targeting Musk. If you didn't say it, I would think they are enemies.
So even the most good-tempered person can't withstand such betrayal, let alone Musk, who has contributed people, money, and effort to help Trump’s campaign. Without discussing returns, at the very least, he shouldn't be targeted. Now, it’s clear that they are burning bridges after crossing the river. No wonder Musk has started to angrily confront Trump, even leading to a 15% drop in Tesla’s stock price.
So if Trump treats his own people like this, it’s really hard to predict what his tariffs and tax reduction plans will ultimately look like. Moreover, you must pay attention to the inflation data next week, as it may encounter major problems. Exit at high points and wait for bottom fishing.