❗Possible risks for TON

1. Centralization of Telegram:

Although Telegram claims to be decentralized, key decisions are still made by a limited group of people.

TON is closely tied to Telegram — if something happens to it (e.g., a ban), it will also affect TON.

2. Competition with other L1 (Layer 1):

Ethereum, Solana, Avalanche, Near — powerful competitors with larger DeFi ecosystems.

TON will have to not just catch up but come up with a unique niche (e.g., mass adoption through Telegram).

3. Legal issues:

The SEC (U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission) already had a conflict with TON in 2020 (after which the launch of TON Gram was canceled). Now it is a revived project by the community, but regulatory risks remain.

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📈 Forecast:

Short-term (2025): TON may experience a sharp increase due to Telegram Mini Apps and the implementation of crypto features for regular users.

Medium-term (2025–2027): If TON becomes the “default Web3” in Telegram, it could become one of the top 5 cryptocurrencies by usage.

Long-term: Everything will depend on whether TON can become not just a platform but an infrastructure for global payment and decentralized services.