Forecast for BTC Trends in the Next 24 Hours
Technical Key Levels:
* Resistance Level: $105,200 (4-hour EMA200 + previous high pressure)
* Support Level: $103,300 (liquidity defense threshold post non-farm)
* On-chain Signals: Daily turnover in the range of $104,000-$105,000 reaches 98,000 BTC, with whale holding cost at $103,800 forming an intraday anchor point.
Bullish and Bearish Catalysts:
* Bullish: Details of Trump's purchase plan disclosed, rumors of tech giants' application implementations
* Bearish: House hearing releases regulatory bearish signals, Dollar Index breaks 99.2
Probability Distribution:
* Consolidation ($103,300-$105,200): 55% (policy window + options position game)
* Breakdown (below $103,300): 30% (regulatory panic triggers programmed selling)
* Rebound (break above $105,200): 15% (Trump concept speculation + short covering)
Operational Recommendations:
* At the current price of $104,200, you can place a limit buy order (stop loss at $102,800), target $106,500;
* If the House hearing releases strong regulatory signals, consider a reversal to short at $101,500;
* If it breaks $105,200, chase long to $107,000 (must be accompanied by hourly trading > $700 million).