Ethereum Volatility + Non-Farm Payroll Night: Strategies for Responding to Sharp Price Movements

Tonight at 20:30, the United States will release non-farm payroll data (previous value 177,000, expected 130,000). The small non-farm ADP is only 37,000 (expected 110,000), and the ISM employment index is shrinking, coupled with a high unemployment rate of 4.2%. The data is likely to be below expectations, which could trigger volatility in the cryptocurrency market.

Impact Forecast

1. Data significantly below expectations: This may force the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates earlier, weakening the dollar and benefiting the crypto market, driving a short-term rebound; however, long-term economic concerns may lead to a sell-off of risk assets (including cryptocurrencies).

2. Capital Flow: With the depreciation of the dollar, some funds may flow into inflation-hedged assets like gold and digital currencies.

Key Technical Levels

Bitcoin: The short trend remains unchanged, focus on resistance at $104-105 (watch for upward spikes), support at $101-100 below.

Ethereum: Weak rebound after falling below $2480, focus on resistance at $2480-2520 tonight (increased volume on an upward spike is a bearish signal), with support at $2400-2380 below.

Operational Suggestions

Light Positioning: Reduce holdings in high-risk coins before the data release, keep position size within 50%;

Set Stop Losses: Place stop loss for long positions below the support, and stop loss for short positions above the resistance;

Beware of Extreme Volatility: Avoid frequent operations within 1 hour after non-farm payroll data is released, and assess the authenticity of the trend based on volume changes.

In the complex situation of Ethereum volatility coinciding with the “Big Non-Farm Payroll,” we should all remain calm, closely monitor the data release and changes in market technical trends, and reasonably adjust investment strategies to cope with potential sharp price movements, maximizing our investment returns.