One, The Correlation Mechanism Between Non-Farm Payroll Data and the Cryptocurrency Market

U.S. employment data is an important macroeconomic indicator that influences the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, affecting market capital flows and investor risk preferences. The quality of the non-farm payroll data directly alters market expectations for monetary policy, which in turn triggers price fluctuations in cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Two, Bitcoin: A Dual Game of Fundamentals and Technicals

Bitcoin's trend is highly correlated with U.S. monetary policy expectations.

If non-farm payroll data comes in lower than expected, market interest rate cut expectations will rise, bringing funds into the crypto market, with Bitcoin likely to hit $115,000; strong data may lead the Federal Reserve to raise rates, putting pressure on Bitcoin.

Technically, Bitcoin is at a critical bullish or bearish juncture.

On the daily chart, the 50-day moving average ($103,000) has a clear resistance, and the support level of $105,000 is crucial. If it holds, it may rise to $107,000 - $108,000; if it breaks below, it will look towards $102,000 and the $100,000 mark. The 4-hour chart shows it fluctuating in the $104,000 - $106,000 channel, with the MACD indicator determining the bullish or bearish transition.

Three, Ethereum: A Coexistence of Positive Fundamentals and Technical Breakthrough Expectations

The V God Layer 1 expansion plan boosts Ethereum's fundamentals. If the non-farm payroll pushes market liquidity up, it may attract more funds.

On the daily chart, Ethereum is challenging the 30-day moving average ($2,650), and if it breaks through, the target is $2,750 - $2,800.

On the 4-hour chart, Ethereum is forming an ascending triangle pattern, with the price at the upper edge of $2,630. A breakout would target $2,800, while a drop below the lower edge of $2,550 would test the $2,480 support.

Four, Altcoins: Opportunities and Risks Under High Volatility Characteristics

Altcoins are correlated with mainstream coins but exhibit greater volatility. Currently, most large-cap altcoins are oversold, such as Ripple, with an RSI below 30. When non-farm payrolls are favorable, quality altcoins may rebound sharply; conversely, altcoins lacking value support, especially meme coins, will face a risk of a sharp decline.

Investors need to closely monitor mainstream coin trends and adjust strategies based on data.




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