When the plummet at midnight broke through the 103,000 defense line, the balance of longs and shorts in the entire cryptocurrency market was undergoing a qualitative change. Those short-term traders drawing boxes on the 15-minute chart have yet to realize — this fluctuation is not an opportunity, but a gentle trap before the strangulation.
(Data reinforces the viewpoint)
■ Key Break: Three consecutive bearish weeks combined with MACD death cross, a standard descending channel has formed since the 128,000 peak.
■ Historical Repetition: The average correction in June over the past three years has reached 23%, currently only retracing 15%, far from being completed.
■ Liquidation Warning: A total of 280 million USD has been forcibly liquidated across the network in 24 hours, with leveraged longs accounting for as much as 76%.
(Main Force Psychological Analysis)
"98,500 is not the bottom!" On-chain data shows that institutional wallets are intensively placing short positions in the 95,000-100,000 range for protection. Retail investors who bought the rebound at 100,700 are like trying to catch a falling knife — what you think is a support level is actually the liquidity hunting ground of the whales.
(Trading Strategy Upgrade)
■ Trend Traders: It is recommended to use the "inverse pyramid scaling method" to allocate in three batches at 95,500, 92,500, and 90,000.
■ Contract Players: You must master the "volatility compression strategy"; when the 4-hour Bollinger Bands narrow to 3%, it often signals a change in trend.
■ Spot Holders: Activate the "hedging insurance strategy", opening a short position in quarterly contracts worth 5,000 USDT for every 1 BTC held.
(Final Analysis)
The most dangerous moment has not yet arrived! If the Q2 earnings report of the US tech sector is a disaster, Bitcoin may test the abyss at 85,000. But remember: true hunters are waiting for the panic selling chips — when the exchange inventory exceeds 2.8 million BTC, an epic rebound will be imminent.
(Philosophical Conclusion)
The essence of trading is the realization of cognition, and the biggest cognitive gap is that while most people focus on the fluctuations of K-lines, a few are laying out the grand narrative of the liquidity migration in the entire cryptocurrency market. The summer of 2024 is destined to write a new wealth legend with bloody chips.
(Risk Warning)
The views expressed in this article do not constitute investment advice. Readers are advised to view market fluctuations rationally. Perpetual contract players are advised to keep leverage below 20 times and set a 5% stop-loss. The market is risky, and decisions should be made cautiously.
