Ruihu Community News on June 6

1. 【Panic Selling in the Market Before Non-Farm Data】 (Importance: 45%)

Content: The U.S. ADP employment data for May increased by only 37,000 (expected 114,000), marking a two-year low. This, combined with the meeting between the White House's crypto affairs chief and the President of El Salvador, has sparked speculation about “policy uncertainty,” leading the market to bet on weak non-farm data. Federal Reserve Governor Kugler stated, “If inflation risks persist, high interest rates will be maintained,” implying that the threshold for rate cuts is extremely high.

Analysis: The risk of data distortion from ADP and government layoffs has intensified market concerns about an economic recession. Despite public companies doubling their Bitcoin holdings year-on-year, the rebalancing behavior of institutions such as BlackRock (increasing ETH and reducing BTC) reveals a short-term liquidity crisis, prompting funds to migrate to treasury bonds and gold.

2. 【Impact of U.S. Crypto Tax Reform Bill on the Market】 (Importance: 25%)

Content: Senator Lummis is pushing to include cryptocurrencies in the tax bill, proposing to extend the “wash sale rule” to the crypto space and exempt miners from tax reporting obligations. If the bill passes, it will bring in billions of dollars in tax revenue.

Analysis: This policy may suppress high-frequency trading and retail speculation, but the tax exemption for miners is favorable for computational infrastructure. The short-term market interpretation is bearish, with on-chain data showing over 28,000 BTC transferred to exchanges during the bill's discussion period.

3. 【Intensifying Global Regulatory Game】 (Importance: 20%)

Content: Singapore will implement new regulations for crypto services on June 30, requiring non-compliant institutions to cease operations; the Federal Reserve's new vice chair for supervision, Michelle Bowman, may lead stablecoin policy. Curve's founder warns that “hired hackers” are systematically attacking DeFi, increasing security risks.

Analysis: The dual pressures of tightened regulation and security incidents have dampened market confidence. Singapore's new regulations might force some Asian capital to exit, but U.S. tax reform and the growth of institutional holdings serve as a hedge.

4. 【Geopolitical Disturbances】 (Importance: 10%)

Content: Trump calls for the termination of Musk's government subsidies to “save billions of dollars,” which may affect Tesla and other companies' Bitcoin holding strategies; the White House discusses Bitcoin cooperation details with El Salvador, and the narrative of sovereign reserves remains intact.

Analysis: Political games intensify policy uncertainty, but the El Salvador case shows that the “anti-sanction” property of Bitcoin is still being monitored by sovereign institutions.