Last night, the Bitcoin market experienced significant volatility, with prices plunging sharply to a low of $100,305, breaking through multiple key support levels. As bearish sentiment was fully released, this morning the market saw a slight recovery. As of now, the BTC price is fluctuating around $101,600.
15-Minute Chart: Weak Rebound, Beware of 'False Recovery'
From the 15-minute candlestick chart, although BTC showed a rebound in the early session, the strength of the rebound was clearly insufficient, failing to effectively hold above the $10,200 mark, indicating that it is still in a technically weak pattern of pullback. Notably, while the MACD indicator has shown signs of a golden cross, its momentum bars are very weak, suggesting that this rebound may only be a fleeting moment. Investors should be wary of the 'false recovery' trap and should not chase prices too easily.
4-Hour Chart: Bearish Trend Established, Downward Pressure Significant
Switching to the 4-hour timeframe, the bearish advantage is even more evident. The middle band of the Bollinger Bands (BOLL) has clearly started to turn downwards, with prices continuously falling towards the lower band area. Crucially, a large bearish candlestick has directly engulfed several previous candlesticks, forming a strong bearish signal. Meanwhile, the MACD indicator has just formed a death cross, and the bearish momentum bars are continuously expanding, indicating that the market's bearish forces are steadily increasing, and subsequent downward pressure should not be underestimated.
Capital Flow: Net Outflow of Main Funds, Strong Bearish Sentiment
Data on capital flow further confirms the current bearish atmosphere in the market. The latest data shows that the net outflow of main funds from BTC reached as high as $1.205 billion, clearly indicating that the sentiment of major institutions is significantly bearish. Against the backdrop of continuous capital outflows, BTC prices may face the risk of further declines in the short term.
Key Points for Short-Term Trading
Upper Resistance Level
The $10,220 - $10,280 range constitutes a strong resistance level. If the BTC price cannot effectively break through this range, the rebound may be difficult to sustain, and bears may re-emerge to dominate market rhythm.
Lower Support Level
The $100,300 - $99,800 range serves as an important support line. If the price falls below $100,300, it is very likely to trigger panic selling in the market, leading to a new round of liquidations. At that time, BTC prices may further decline, with target levels possibly looking towards the $98,500 - $97,500 range.
