谭森实盘记录

Morning Thoughts on April 2:

Last night, the market was initially sluggish, then strongly rebounded, but quickly returned to calm. It is currently in a small-scale oscillation range. Analyzing from the hourly chart, bullish momentum is weak, with multiple upward attempts ending in pullbacks, and trading volume has noticeably shrunk, indicating poor market activity.

Zooming out to a larger timeframe, after a continuous rise, the market shows clear signs of stagnation, with prices struggling to break through previous highs, primarily maintaining a high-level oscillation adjustment. Switching to the four-hour timeframe, the K-line lacks upward attack momentum, and signs of top resistance are beginning to appear, indicating a demand for downward adjustments in the short term.

Looking at the hourly chart, the K-line structure is gradually forming a head and shoulders pattern, with bearish control continuously strengthening. Although the downward pace is relatively slow at the moment, the downtrend is steady, showing no signs of weakening. Therefore, investors need to closely monitor market trends in the short term and be wary of the risk of pullbacks.

Bitcoin: Short near 85500-86000, target around 83000.
Ethereum: Short near 1920-1940, target around 1830.

#冲币新时代 #美国加征关税 #AmericanBitcoin发布会 #BNBChain爆发 #美国投资加速器 $BTC $ETH

There are 56 days until the next interest rate meeting, which will be held on May 7. Based on the current data, the probability of maintaining the existing interest rate level in May is as high as 85%.

Looking at the bigger picture and combining it with the dot plot for analysis, if we want to achieve this year's median data target, we would need to proceed with interest rate cuts at a pace of 25 basis points each time, with an expectation of 3 rate cuts throughout the year. Considering various factors, it is highly likely that this year's rate cuts will occur in July, September, and November respectively.

#美国加征关税 #AmericanBitcoin发布会 #BNBChain爆发 #FTX赔付 #美国投资加速器 $BTC $ETH

April 1st Afternoon Thoughts:

The big coin experienced a stretch in the market last night, but the bears quickly countered and reclaimed lost ground, leaving only a small-bodied bullish candle. Today, the big coin price is consolidating at a low level, showing a stable divergence. The previous rally was so fierce that the subsequent decline may be equally sharp. On the hourly chart, the big coin price has temporarily stabilized above the middle band, but based on the subsequent trend, it is highly likely that the pattern of a rebound followed by a short position will continue. Currently, the big coin is overall in a trend of oscillating downwards, with continuous release of bearish momentum. Short-term rebounds can only be viewed as technical corrections and are unlikely to form a true reversal.

From the 4-hour perspective, the coin price is still within a downward channel, with the MACD indicator continuously expanding below the zero axis, and no reversal signal has appeared in the short term, indicating that the downward trend may continue. Looking at the hourly chart structure, the Bollinger Bands are in a contracting state, and the current price is temporarily pressured at 84000, with multiple rebounds stalling here and falling back. The K-line frequently shows long upper shadows, clearly indicating that there is heavy selling pressure above. If the big coin price cannot break through 84000 and stabilize in the short term, it means there is a possibility of further retracement. Therefore, as long as the upper resistance is not broken during the day, we maintain a high short position, waiting for the price to pull back. If it does not break the key support level, we will switch to a long position.

Short position near 83800-84200, looking down at 81200-81500
Short position near 1875-1900, looking down at 1775-1800

#BNBChain爆发 #AmericanBitcoin发布会 #FTX赔付 #MEME币狂欢 #美国加征关税 $BTC $ETH

Today's Market Analysis:

Bitcoin has not fluctuated much during the day, and the next two days may oscillate around the range of 851 (top) and 823/811 (bottom). It is advisable to sell high and buy low, as everyone is waiting for the meeting early Thursday morning. Pay attention to 83500 during the day; a stable position at the 4-hour level may indicate a possibility of continued rebound upwards, with resistance levels at around 85120 - 86450 - 87500. If it cannot stabilize, support levels to watch are around 82360 - 81100 - 79900.

For Ethereum, pay attention to 1905 during the day; a stable position at the 4-hour level is needed for an upward rebound, with resistance levels at around 1956 - 1988 - 2020. If it cannot stabilize, the rebound strength will be small, with support levels around 1870 - 1838 - 1807.

For BNB, focus on 630 during the day; a stable position at the 1 - 2 hour level is required to end the pullback and continue upward, with resistance levels around 636.8 - 644 - 652. If it cannot stabilize, the pullback will continue, with support levels around 621.1 - 612.7 - 603.6.

For SOL, after reaching the first resistance level from midnight to early morning, pay attention to 127.5 today; a stable position at the 1-hour level is needed to continue the upward rebound, with resistance levels around 130 - 132.3 - 136.3. If it cannot stabilize, the rebound strength will be small, with support levels around 123.8 - 120.7 - 118.2.

#你看好哪一个山寨币ETF将通过？ #Strategy增持比特币 #BNBChainDEX交易量超越Solana #美国加征关税 #TON反弹 $BTC $ETH

March 14th Tan Sen Today's Welfare List:

Bitcoin current price directly short, target around 79500, stop loss: 83500
Ethereum current price directly short, target around 1840, stop loss: 1925

From the daily level, the bearish closure of Bitcoin is a foregone conclusion, after hitting the bottom near the 80000 level, the price quickly rebounded, leaving a clear lower shadow on the candlestick chart. However, this rebound is not a signal of trend reversal; it is more likely just a brief pullback after a strong spike. Although the overall trend has started to contract, a reversal pattern has not yet formed. Looking at the hourly level, the price is currently hovering near the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, with clear signs of resistance. Therefore, the current rebound can be viewed as a consolidation phase for the bears.

#乌俄停火 #你看好哪一个山寨币ETF将通过？ #跟单交易 #美国2月PPI数据低于预期 #美国加征关税 $BTC $ETH

March 14 Market Analysis:

Recently, Bitcoin's trend has indeed shown some规律. During the day, it moves like a slow wanderer, rising little by little in a sluggish manner, dragging along for a day. However, once the US stock market opens at night, it's like being pulled by an invisible hand, and the market instantly collapses. This trend is reminiscent of the old saying, "The easy paths are all downhill." Fortunately, as long as it’s not an extreme market situation with sharp spikes, these minor fluctuations are still within an acceptable range for everyone, considered as the normal "breathing" of the market. From the 4-hour K-line chart, the price of Bitcoin has shown a downward trend for five consecutive cycles. Even though there have been rebounds during this period, the magnitude has been quite limited, and the upward momentum is clearly lacking, making it difficult to shake off the bearish dominance. Currently, the coin price has fallen below the middle line of the Bollinger Bands, which originally acted as support, but now has become resistance for upward movement. After a brief drop below 80000 last night, there was some rebound, and it's currently fluctuating around 82000, but this is merely a short-term adjustment. The resistance above remains strong, and the resistance level is gradually moving downwards, making it highly likely to break below the 80000 mark again, and it may even further test down to 76000, or in extreme cases, drop to 73500.
Current changes in price and trading volume: Recently, trading volume has decreased, with volume down compared to a few hours ago, while the price is rising; a decrease in trading volume indicates weakened upward momentum. MACD analysis of the current market trend: no obvious trend; MACD histogram: the histogram remains positive and gradually shortens: bullish strength is weakening.

The trend of Ethereum is similar to Bitcoin, with bears holding a clear advantage. Since breaking below the 2000 price level, the market has struggled, and it's even difficult to break through 1980, making significant upward movements unlikely in the short term. Therefore, below 2000, every high point is a good opportunity to short.

Bitcoin short around 82500-82800, looking down at around 80200-80500
Ethereum short around 1900-1910, looking down at around 1840-1860

#乌俄停火 #你看好哪一个山寨币ETF将通过？ #跟单交易 #美国2月PPI数据低于预期 #美国加征关税 $BTC $ETH

March 13 Market Analysis:

Looking back at today's market in the afternoon, Bitcoin continued its bearish downward trend, with prices dipping to a low near the key support level of 82350. However, just as market sentiment became cautious, Bitcoin bulls quickly gained momentum, launching a rebound that once peaked at the price level of 83496. Yet, from the momentum of the rebound, this bullish counterattack appeared somewhat weak, failing to fundamentally reverse the situation controlled by the bears, and the overall trend still leans towards bearish.

In the four-hour technical chart dimension, temporarily excluding special cases like candlestick formations, we focus on the current position. If Bitcoin can initiate a new round of rebound here, the double top pattern may be broken, and the market pattern could welcome a turning point; conversely, if the rebound force is weak and unsustainable, the market is likely to test lower again, seeking new support and direction.

Switching to the daily perspective, yesterday closed with a long upper shadow small bullish candlestick, combined with the previous day's long lower shadow bullish candlestick, two bullish candlesticks appeared consecutively, at first glance, it seems that the market is steadily rebounding and climbing, creating signs of warming. Overall, it indicates a trend of enticing bulls. Unless there are strong, solid K-line formations that firmly stand above the key level of 84000, the foundation of the rebound is unstable and there is a risk of a collapse at any time. The daily MACD indicator has recently rebounded, and although the bearish volume bar has reduced, given the relatively long daily cycle, the trend changes it reflects are more macro and lagging. Integrating the characteristics displayed in the four-hour level.

I personally predict that the market will likely test downwards first to confirm the support strength below, completing the bearish cycle of four hours; once the bearish momentum is exhausted, the bulls will look for opportunities to act, driving the market to rebound, at which point both the four-hour and daily charts will enter a bullish phase together, thereby constructing a perfect trend of coordinated resonance between large and small cycles. Of course, it is essential to be vigilant that if the four-hour bearish downward force is too strong, it is not excluded that Bitcoin's price will once again break new lows, approaching the 72000 - 74000 region, which is precisely the bottom fluctuation range we have repeatedly emphasized recently, a necessary process for the market to seek solid support.

Bitcoin 83500-84000 area short. Looking down at around 79800-80200.
Second cryptocurrency 1940-1960 area short. Looking down at around 1820-1850.

$BTC $ETH

Big pancake 83107 enters at 81800 and exits, gaining 1307 points, with a profit of 7000 oil
Second pancake 1892 jin leaves at 1860, gaining 32 points, with a profit of 7600 oil
The evening CPI announcement surged sharply in a short time, with long positions earning over 2000 points before quickly taking profit. The price rapidly fell back to around 84000, decisively laying out short positions. Subsequently, the big pancake fell to a low of around 81500, and the short positions steadily reaped nearly 2000 points of profit. Only by trading with the trend can one make a profit in the cryptocurrency market. Seizing every fluctuation to gain considerable returns in the cryptocurrency market is essential, while controlling the risk of each trade is also crucial.

#CPI数据来袭 #乌俄停火 #掌握市场 #SEC推迟多个现货ETF审批 #美国加征关税 $BTC $ETH

The U.S. stock market opens in the evening, with the three major indices opening high and short positions entering the market. The current short positions perfectly take profit and exit. As expected, one cannot solely rely on the high opening of the U.S. stock market to make judgments about the market; various data must be combined for a comprehensive conclusion. Investing is like a battle without gunpowder; in the market, some people fail miserably while others can ride the waves. We belong to the latter. After a long period of research and honing, we have a deep insight into the market, not blindly following trends, nor being disturbed by short-term fluctuations. The first two key trends were accurately grasped, with perfect timing for entry and exit. This is not bragging; every operation is supported by solid analysis and judgment.

#CPI数据来袭 $ETH $BTC #乌俄停火 #掌握市场 #SEC推迟多个现货ETF审批 #美国加征关税

Tan Sen's current price single verification today, the second pancake gained over 40 points, the big pancake gained over 1700 points, the current price single is very clear. Recently, the trade war and economic recession expectations have triggered investor panic, causing funds to sell off and escape, resulting in reduced market liquidity. This is intuitively reflected in the fact that various Bitcoin ETF funds have remained in a state of net outflow in recent days. Facts speak louder than words, and those voices of doubt become insignificant in the face of a series of impressive return curves. I believe that as long as we maintain respect and sensitivity towards the market, luck will always be by our side. In the future, I will continue to write more wonderful investment chapters.
#CPI数据来袭 #乌俄停火 #掌握市场 #SEC推迟多个现货ETF审批 #美国加征关税 $BTC $ETH

March 21st Tan Sen Today's Welfare List:

Big pancake current price directly short, target around 81800
Second pancake current price directly short, target around 1860
Defensive real-time guidance provided.

Recent market trends cannot be separated from the expectations of near trade wars and economic recession, leading to investors' panic in the market, resulting in capital sell-offs and escapes, thus reducing market liquidity. A clear data point is that in recent days, various Bitcoin ETFs have consistently been in a state of net outflow.

#CPI数据来袭 #乌俄停火 #掌握市场 #SEC推迟多个现货ETF审批 #美国加征关税 $BTC $ETH

Recently, I've been busy with friends in the Tan Sen family, so the square hasn't been updated much. In the afternoon, I placed a market order for a friend. After the CPI data was released, the price of Bitcoin and Ethereum surged beyond expectations. In the market, no one can make a 100% accurate judgment. One can only say that by using technical indicators and trends, along with capturing various news, one can make an assessment. By laying out plans in advance, one can proceed steadily and confidently, navigating through the ever-changing market waves, firmly holding the unbeaten high ground, regardless of how the winds and clouds change, always standing at the forefront.

Evening Thoughts on March 12:

The market witnessed a turning point in the afternoon. The previously declining market abruptly halted after reaching the low point of 81250, with bulls quickly gaining momentum, pushing prices strongly rebounding to reach the high point of 82942. Meanwhile, Ethereum followed suit, rebounding after dipping to the low point of 1851, successfully reaching the high point of 1955 in the afternoon session. With the release of favorable CPI data in the evening, Bitcoin surged to a high of 84500, while Ethereum reached 1949.

Analyzing the current market situation from a daily perspective, Bitcoin began a corrective rebound after a severe drop to the low point of 76500, and is now approaching 83000. The upper pressure level at 84000 remains firm; if broken, it is likely to target 86000 - 87000 in the short term. The support range is located between 80500 - 78500; if the bears continue, a pullback to 73000 cannot be ruled out. Ethereum shows a similar pattern, rebounding to around 1950 after a severe drop to 1750, with the pressure level between 1950 - 2000. If broken, it will look towards the key point of 2100, with support at 1850 - 1800, and if the bears continue, it may test the bottom at 1650.

Focusing again on the 4-hour level, the downtrend faced resistance, with Bitcoin finding support in the range of 80000 - 78000 and Ethereum between 1850 - 1800. Subsequent rebounds will test resistance, with Bitcoin estimated to challenge 84000 - 86000 and Ethereum looking towards 1950 - 2000. The market has experienced a wave of upward movement, successfully pushing prices above the midline. Currently, the midline is around 83000, showing a gradually narrowing and downward-sloping trend, indicating that the market may face some pressure in the short term. Although bulls are showing signs of a rebound, the resistance level at 84000 has still not been broken. Until there is an effective breakthrough of the upper range, it is recommended to maintain a high short strategy as the main focus. If bears dominate, it is likely to consolidate in the current range before breaking down support.

In terms of operational strategy, it is suggested to prioritize high shorts with low longs as a supplement, flexibly responding to market changes.

#CPI数据来袭 #乌俄停火 #掌握市场 #SEC推迟多个现货ETF审批 #美国加征关税 $BTC $ETH

March 6th Operation Suggestion:

Yesterday, the market continued the rebound trend after testing 81700 from the previous trading day, showing a strong upward trend in the four-hour chart. The price fluctuation range narrowed during the day, operating within a 5000-point range, rising from 86000 to 91000. The daily line finally closed with a bullish candlestick with a slightly longer lower shadow than the upper shadow.

From a theoretical perspective, the price fluctuation range is 5000 points. In actual market conditions, prices remained above 87400 during the European and American trading session and did not drop below. From the attached chart, it is clear that there is significant support around 87200. Throughout the European and American trading session, the market mainly exhibited a range-bound trend, with prices oscillating between 87000 and 90200 for the entire night.

From the daily perspective, the previous candlestick for Bitcoin continued to close bullish, opening with a push to test the middle band and recovering the decline on the 3rd. The Bollinger Bands are narrowing, short-term moving averages are turning to support, the MACD fast and slow lines have crossed upwards, the red bars are expanding, and the KDJ is moving upwards. Pay attention to the resistance between 80 - 100, and the VR indicator is consolidating around the 70 mark. Bitcoin's daily line closed bullish around 90500, with the Bollinger Bands narrowing downwards, the MACD moving averages gently rising, bullish momentum appearing, and the KDJ line moving upwards.

On the four-hour level, the market rose slowly after breaking through the middle band and the 60-day moving average, testing the EMA200 resistance. The Bollinger Bands are flattening, and the short-term moving averages are forming support near the middle band. The MACD fast and slow lines broke through the 0 axis, the red bars are expanding, and the KDJ is turning downwards near the 100 mark, with the VR indicator consolidating around the 100 mark. The four-hour Bollinger Bands are narrowing upwards, and the market rebounded from the bottom to the upper band of the Bollinger Bands, with the MACD moving averages rising.

The overall candlestick presents a W shape, indicating a warming up of bullish sentiment, but there is considerable resistance above. First, pay attention to the previous high neckline, and secondly, the daily 60 moving average. Tomorrow there will be non-farm payrolls and a crypto summit, influenced by significant news, so avoid chasing highs and lows in the short term and be cautious of risks.

Bitcoin will oscillate broadly between 86000 and 92000, and we should observe the results of the summit in the near term. For the second coin, observe the range between 2120-2300, avoiding building positions at the continuation level.

#白宫首届加密货币峰会 #MtGox钱包动态 #美国2月ADP就业人数 #美国加密战略储备 #加密市场反弹 $BTC $ETH

From a macro perspective, recent medium to long-term strategies:

The White House hosted the first cryptocurrency summit, indicating that the U.S. government is starting to pay attention to cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology. With reasonable policies and international cooperation, cryptocurrencies are expected to promote global economic and social development in the future.

1. Currency devaluation and inflation crisis: Over the past decade, the global central bank balance sheets have expanded by more than 300%, the purchasing power of the U.S. dollar has shrunk by 23%, and the Federal Reserve's 'easing-tightening' has intensified market fluctuations. Bitcoin's fixed total supply of 21 million makes it a tool against inflation.
2. 'Hoarding' and long-term holders (LTH): Over 68% of Bitcoin's circulating supply has not moved for a year, reaching a historical high, with exchange BTC reserves falling to a five-year low. The tightening of liquidity may trigger the next bull market.
3. Institutional entry: From the fringe to the mainstream: Companies like MicroStrategy hold large amounts of Bitcoin, BlackRock and Fidelity have applied for Bitcoin spot ETFs, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley provide cryptocurrency derivatives services, and cryptocurrencies are gradually entering the mainstream financial market.

4. The institutionalization process is irreversible: BlackRock's Bitcoin spot ETF has surpassed $18 billion in assets under management, with traditional asset management giants holding 7.2% of Bitcoin's circulating supply, and the global pension fund's cryptocurrency allocation rising to 1.5%. If it reaches 5%, it will introduce $2.1 trillion in incremental funding, making the institutionalization process unstoppable.

When the summit presents certain positive signals, the medium to long-term target can be set at 130,000, with expectations of repeated testing between 80,000 and 100,000 in March.

#白宫首届加密货币峰会 #MtGox钱包动态 #美国2月ADP就业人数 #美国加密战略储备 #加密市场反弹 $BTC $ETH

Evening thoughts on March 5:

In the turbulent waves of the cryptocurrency market, the Bitcoin market is unpredictable. Recently, the price of Bitcoin has been on a downward trend, touching a low around 86694, but then suddenly surged, rising rapidly to a high around 90625. Similarly, Ethereum also experienced a dip around noon, hitting a low of 2156, followed by an upward trajectory, reaching a high of 2272.

From a daily chart analysis, the candlestick pattern shows a downward pin bar with a closing price near 87000. The Bollinger Bands continue to open downward, signaling a market decline; however, while the MACD moving averages are gently declining, the selling volume is gradually decreasing, indicating a weakening of bearish forces. The KDJ line is turning upward, injecting some bullish hope into the market. Looking at the 4-hour chart, the Bollinger Bands are gradually flattening, suggesting that short-term market volatility is stabilizing. After hitting a bottom, the market rebounded to near the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, with the MACD moving averages running smoothly, further decreasing selling volume, and the KDJ line maintaining an upward trend, seemingly indicating that bullish momentum is gathering in the short term.

Buy Bitcoin around 89200-89500, targeting 92400-93000
Buy Ethereum around 2180-2200, targeting 2275-2300

#美国加密战略储备 #特朗普国会演讲 #白宫首届加密货币峰会 #加密市场反弹 #币安上线GPS $BTC $ETH

The highly anticipated first White House cryptocurrency summit is about to begin! The schedule and lineup for this summit are already clear, with the meeting expected to last about 4 hours and conducted behind closed doors, ensuring maximum confidentiality. Although the specific agenda remains confidential, it is clear to observers that the construction of a cryptocurrency regulatory framework and discussions on the U.S. cryptocurrency strategic reserve plan are likely to be the core topics of the meeting. These two items are undoubtedly the most critical and closely watched focal points in the current cryptocurrency field, and their direction will profoundly impact the future development pattern of the cryptocurrency market.

The market is currently holding its breath, hoping that this summit can bring solid positive news. If there are indeed significant favorable outcomes, the cryptocurrency market might welcome a new wave of enthusiasm, allowing everyone to profit significantly; however, if there are no substantial positive developments, the market may fall back into a quagmire of repeated fluctuations, and we investors will inevitably be tossed back and forth by this unpredictable market, enduring the agony of asset volatility, which is enough to cause distress!

Recently, the news front has been like a roller coaster, jumping up and down without any规律可言，like a child playing house, it is truly absurd. The entire world seems to be a chaotic and disordered makeshift stage, completely lacking in order. One moment there are shouts about increasing tariffs on Canada and Mexico, and the next moment there are reports of tariff reductions, with policies fluctuating unpredictably. Even Zelensky has compromised and stated that he can sign mineral and security agreements at any time, and is also planning to initiate peace talks, with the situation changing so rapidly that it is hard to keep up.

The worst off are retail investors like us, as the market is completely interconnected; whether it is bad news or good news, once released it results in a double explosion of bulls and bears, and we can only struggle to survive in this ever-changing market. As the saying goes, when under a roof, one must bow their head; nowadays, the market's rise and fall almost entirely depends on Trump's mood. In the face of absolute power, market rules have to yield, which is truly frustrating.

Looking at this greed index, it was only 10 a few days ago, but yesterday it actually rose to 15. I speculate that the market will likely oscillate a few more times at the bottom before finally solidifying. We small investors can only cautiously observe in this turbulent situation, hoping to welcome a stable market.

March 4 Yesterday Summary: Yesterday's layout involved four trades, one at the current price
Bitcoin captured over five thousand points yesterday
Ethereum captured over two hundred points yesterday

Yesterday afternoon, after a brief period of market fluctuation, the evening trading session began to show significant volatility. Initially, prices exhibited a slight downward trend, and just as bearish sentiment filled the market, the bulls quickly rallied to counterattack with fierce momentum, causing prices to surge, momentarily reaching a high of 84934.

However, the good times didn't last long, as the bears were unwilling to back down and immediately launched a fierce counteroffensive. This rebuttal was strong, and the momentum did not wane. Under the immense pressure from the bears, the market trend rapidly reversed, with prices plummeting to a low of 81200, and the market atmosphere was instantly shrouded in panic.

#白宫首届加密货币峰会 #白宫首届加密货币峰会 #币安上线GPS #美国加征关税 #FTX赔付 $BTC $ETH

March 4th Tuesday Summary: Today's layout includes four orders, one at market price
Bitcoin today gained over five thousand points in total
Ethereum today gained over two hundred points in total
In the morning, the market price declined to test the bottom, reaching the key hourly support level of 82400, where buying interest surged, pushing the price up. However, as it rebounded to the 84000 area, trading volume shrank and upward momentum weakened.

In the afternoon, Bitcoin experienced consolidation, peaking at 84566 before retracing to 83000, fluctuating within a narrow range. Ethereum's trend was similar, surging in the afternoon before pulling back and entering a consolidation phase.

The US stock market opened, leading the main trend, with Bitcoin initially falling before rising again, gaining nearly 3000 points in 5 minutes, and after first touching around the 85000 hourly resistance point, it retraced by 1500 points. The focus moving forward is whether it can break through; if the bulls extend significantly, tonight's key focus will be the 88500 - 89500 area, which is the weekly bullish-bearish dividing line.

#币安上线GPS #美国加征关税 #加密市场回调 #FTX赔付 #BNBChainMeme热潮 $BTC $ETH