Alright, let's continue to delve deeper. Now let's focus on two aspects:

1. Under the US 'monetization' path, historical experiences and the performance logic of Bitcoin/Gold

2. When the critical point of 'debt bubble bursting' arrives, how will market funds migrate? (Possible strategic role of Bitcoin)

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🧾 1. Historical experiences of debt monetization + Current reflections

✅ Concept Review: What is 'Monetization of Fiscal Deficit'?

In simple terms, the government spends money, incurs fiscal deficits, and the central bank prints money to pay the bill:

• Government issues bonds → Market cannot absorb → Federal Reserve buys → Inject new money into the banking system → Government continues to spend.

This is a disguised form of 'printing money to repay debt'.

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📚 Case 1: Stagflation period in the US during the 1970s

Time Event Consequence

1965–1971 Vietnam War, welfare spending surged Fiscal deficit soared

1971 'Nixon Shock': Dollar decoupled from gold standard Loss of currency credit → Gold price skyrocketed

1974–1980 Inflation soared (CPI over 10%) Gold rose from $35 to $800

During the same period Dollar depreciation, bond market turmoil Debt is 'diluted by inflation'

📌 Gold has become the 'ultimate asset' to escape dollar depreciation, while US Treasuries have undergone a long-term 'implicit default' with negative real yields.

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📚 Case 2: Post-COVID QE period 2020–2023

Year Policy Event Market Reaction (Assets)

2020 Pandemic outbreak, fiscal spending exceeded 5 trillion Federal Reserve QE expanded balance sheet by nearly 5 trillion

2020–21 Bitcoin rose from $8,000 to $69,000 Gold rose from $1,300 to $2,070

2022–23 Inflation skyrocketed, Federal Reserve raised interest rates + reduced balance sheet Risk assets fell, gold and bitcoin faced short-term pressure

📌 2020–2021, Monetization combined with fiscal stimulus → Bitcoin and gold both surged strongly

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💰 2. If the debt bubble is indeed about to burst, how will funds flow?

Let’s imagine a scenario: The market begins to worry about the continuing uncontrollable US fiscal policy + rising interest rates but declining deficits:

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🔻 Some signs have emerged:

• Demand for US Treasuries has decreased (overseas buyers reducing holdings, such as China, Japan, and oil-exporting countries)

• The US Congress frequently struggles to raise the debt ceiling, and government shutdowns are common

• The Federal Reserve is forced to restart bond purchases (QE), but inflation pressures remain high

• Rating agencies like S&P downgraded US Treasury ratings

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🧠 What were the thoughts of large funds during this time?

1. Dollar credit begins to 'wobble'

• If 'US Treasuries = Printing Tool', their reserve value is discounted.

• Central banks/sovereign funds may increase gold allocations (for example, China and Russia are already doing this).

2. Hedging against dollar depreciation risk

• Gold, Bitcoin, energy resources, etc., have become safe havens for funds.

• Especially Bitcoin, due to its non-sovereign, global trading, and limited issuance, will be seen as a tool to counteract 'fiat currency credit loss of control'.

3. Rising government bond yields, pressure on US stocks

• Bond market pressure → Interest rates rise → Corporate financing costs increase → Stock market declines

• Some risk-averse funds are fleeing from the stock and bond markets to physical assets and digital assets

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📊 Can Bitcoin become 'digital gold' in this process?

Attributes Gold Bitcoin

Supply Scarcity Annual increase of 1–2%, total supply unknown Total supply of 21 million coins, 93% already mined

Censorship Resistance High, but easily tracked by regulators Extremely high, peer-to-peer transmission

Liquidity Highly circulated globally Increasingly strong (driven by ETFs)

Fiat Currency Independence Completely Independent Completely Independent

Volatility Low (Mature) High (Young Market)

⛳ Conclusion:

Bitcoin has the potential to become digital gold in the 21st century, especially in the context of dollar credit decline + fiat currency proliferation. Its 'decentralization + constant supply' properties make it very attractive under systemic monetary risk.

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📌 Conclusion: The true cost of the US Treasury bubble

The US may not 'default' itself, but will make all holders of dollar assets pay the price—through inflation, exchange rates, and negative interest rates.

So:

• Gold is a 'traditional safe haven'

• Bitcoin is the 'new safe haven in the era of system reconstruction'

• Both have the potential to serve as value anchors during the collapse of the debt bubble